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We're set for another betting prediction and pick as the UFC 311 continues to roll with the upcoming Featured Prelim bout of the night in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Rising prospect Payton Talbott will return to face Brazil's veteran Raoni Barcelos. Check the UFC odds series for our Talbott-Barcelos prediction and pick.
Payton Talbott (9-0) remains perfect through his first three fights in the UFC since 2023. The DWCS alum has now beaten Nick Aguirre, Cameron Saaiman, and Yanis Ghemmouri all by knockout and will be the biggest betting favorite on this fight card hoping to do the same. Talbott stands 5-foot-10 with a 70.5-inch reach.
Raoni Barcelos (18-5) has gone 7-4 inside the UFC since 2018. While he's gone just 2-3 over his last five fights, he won his most recent bout over Cristian Quinonez via submission. He'll hope to overcome massive odds in this one, but a win would certainly propel his career and steal the hype from under his opponent. Barcelos stands 5-foot-7 with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 311 Odds: Payton Talbott-Raoni Barcelos Odds
Payton Talbott: -1200
Raoni Barcelos: +750
Over 1.5 rounds: -175
Under 1.5 rounds: +135
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Why Payton Talbott Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Yanis Ghemmouri – TKO
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Payton Talbott will make another walk to the octagon as a heavy betting favorite, something he's done throughout his first three fights in the UFC. The expectations have been sky-high, but Talbott has met them head-on each step of the way, notching three impressive finishes each time out. He's constantly growing and he's never satisfied with his most recent outcome, so we can expect the best version of Talbott on Saturday as he searches for another finish in the first round.
Talbott is landing 8.4 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, so he gets to work very quickly in taking the center of the cage and walking his opponents down. He's hardly gotten hit through his first three fights as his defense is very solid and he's athletic enough to remain at distance. Expect yet another methodical approach from Talbott as everything he does in the cage is done with some sort of purpose. If the betting lines are any indication, we should see another quick and exciting finish from Talbott.
Why Raoni Barcelos Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Cristian Quinonez – SUB (rear naked choke)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 3 SUB3
Raoni Barcelos has faced extremely tough opposition in Umar Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips over his last five fights. While he's gone just 2-3, he's fighting some of the best bantamweights in the world right now and will certainly have an edge in experience over Talbott. Barcelos is a seasoned mixed martial artist with a background in kickboxing and a solid grappling game to go along with it. Fighting behind an 85% takedown defense, we should see the majority of this fight take place on the feet.
Raoni Barcelos will be looking stun Talbott early with a hard hooking shot or kick to the body. For his size, Barcelos certainly packs a big punch and his experience fighting Muay Thai has callused his chin into being very solid. Look for Barcelos to close the distance quickly and work his way inside with hooks and uppercuts. He's also very dangerous with his knees up the middle and could sneak some in during this bout.
Final Payton Talbott-Raoni Barcelos Prediction & Pick
Both competitors are very fierce, but the Featured Prelim of the Night will also be the fight with the biggest betting odds discrepancy. Payton Talbott is one of the more promising prospects in the UFC at the moment and he's made his first three fights look relatively easy up to this point. Raoni Barcelos is a grisly veteran, however, and will easily be Talbott's most difficult test to-date.
Raoni Barcelos stands a chance to win this fight if he's able to move from Talbott's initial strikes and close the distance with shots in close. He's not likely to beat Talbott at range where he's most creative, so Barcelos will have to make this a dirty fight inside. He has the power necessary to sit his opponent down, but it will be a matter of getting to his chin without taking shots in return.
There's a reason Payton Talbott is heavily favored here and I expect him to finish this fight inside the distance. Talbott's ability to slip out of range and return will be his biggest key and I expect his kicks to be a big factor as well. As long as he remains technical, we should see him notch an early knockout.
Final Payton Talbott-Raoni Barcelos Prediction & Pick: Payton Talbott (-1200); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-175)
