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The Phillies travel to face the Guardians in a new series! Nola and Williams open this series, facing off with both teams playing very well coming into this series. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Guardians prediction and pick.
Phillies-Guardians Projected Starters
Aaron Nola vs. Gavin Williams
Aaron Nola (1-5) with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed zero runs on four hits with one walk and eight strikeouts through six innings.
Away Splits: (0-3) 4.56 ERA
Gavin Williams (2-2) with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed two runs on seven hits with five walks and nine strikeouts through four innings.
Home Splits: (0-1) 5.30 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Guardians Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+128)
Moneyline: -126
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: +108
Over: 7.5 (-120)
Under: 7.5 (-102)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Guardians
Time: 7:10 pm ET/4:10 pm PT
Article Continues Below
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia/CLEG
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Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies were a great team last season, finishing with a 95-67 record. They have been solid this season, with the Phillies having a 21-15 record and having won four of their last five games and two straight coming into this series. The offense was a top-five unit the previous season, and this year has jumped into the top three. After having a great year last season, the pitching has been near the middle of the pack and not as impressive. On offense, there are sluggers on the team. Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and J.T. Realmuto make up a loaded offense. The pitching of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Taijuan Walker, and Jesus Luzardo also makes up an excellent pitching staff for the Phillies. They are also waiting for Ranger Suarez to come back from injury.
The Phillies' offense was one of the best in the MLB last season, and they have still been great this year. They have a .259 batting average this season after finishing with a .257 average last season. Turner and Schwarber are the biggest standouts on this loaded offense this season. Schwarber leads in home runs with 12, RBI with 28, and OBP at .410. Then, Turner leads in batting average at .307, and in total hits with 42. This offense has so much talent and depth this season, and should cause issues for Williams, mainly because he has struggled so far this season.
The Guardians are starting Williams on the mound. He has a 2-2 record, a 5.06 ERA, and a 1.75 WHIP. He has allowed 20 runs on 37 hits with 19 walks and 37 strikeouts through 32 innings across his seven starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 1.9. The Guardians are also 4-3 in their seven starts. Williams has struggled despite the Guardians being able to fend off his performances. Turner, Bohm, and Turner have had the best success against him with a 3.33, 1.000, and .500 average.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies are starting Nola on the mound, with a 1-5 record, a 4.61 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP. He has allowed 22 runs on 41 hits with 13 walks and 45 strikeouts across 41 innings in his seven starts. His K/BB ratio is also at 3.5 in those starts. The Phillies are also 2-5 in his seven starts this season. He matches up poorly against the best hitters on the Guardians' roster. Santana and Kwan have a .500 and 1.000 average against him this year.
The Guardians were one of the best teams in the MLB last season and finished with a 92-69 record. They are 22-15 this season and have won four of their previous five games and two straight coming into this series. Their bats were underwhelming the previous season and have still struggled this year. They had one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB last year, and they have started playing near the bottom of the league this year. Brayan Rocchio, Carlos Santana, Lane Thomas, Bo Naylor, Kyle Manzardo, Jose Ramirez (dealing with injury), and Steven Kwan have been key to their offense this year. Tanner Bibee is the best pitcher on the roster, but Logan Allen and Ben Lively have also been solid. The Guardians have potential and can get a big win in this series.
The Guardians have talent behind the plate on offense, even after the offseason. They were 19th in team batting average at .222 and are at .238 this year. Kwan and Manzardo have been the best players on the offense. Kwan leads in batting average at .333, OBP at .391, and total hits with 49. Then, Manzardo leads in home runs with eight and RBI with 21. The Guardians have depth and balance across this lineup, which is causing issues for Nola.
Final Phillies-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The pitching matchup is a wash because they have not had a good year. The Phillies win due to their offense, but the Guardians cover at home.
Final Phillies-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-154)
