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The MLB season continues as the Philadelphia Phillies look to gain some ground on the NL East first-place New York Mets when they come into the second game of their series at Citi Field on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Mets prediction and pick.
Phillies-Mets Projected Starters
Cristopher Sanchez vs. Griffin Canning
Cristopher Sanchez – (2-0) with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP
Last Start: Sanchez earned the win Thursday over the Giants, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits and a walk over seven innings. He struck out 12.
2025 Road Splits: Sanchez, in his lone road start this season, allowed one earned run on eight hits while striking out three across six innings against the Cardinals.
Griffin Canning – (2-1) with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP
Last Start: Canning picked up the win Thursday against the Cardinals after allowing one run on three hits and two walks in six innings. He struck out eight.
2025 Home Splits: Canning has been red hot at home to start the season with a 1-0 record, 1.80 ERA, and 1.20 WHIP in two starts.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+116)
Moneyline: -136
New York Mets: +1.5 (-140)
Moneyline: +116
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Mets
Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT
TV: SportsNet New York, MLB Extra Innings
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
Cristopher Sánchez and the Phillies are primed to topple Griffin Canning and the Mets on Tuesday, and the reasons start with Sánchez’s electric arsenal and recent dominance. Sánchez is coming off a career-best performance in which he struck out 12 batters across seven innings, generating a staggering 22 swings and misses with his changeup—a pitch now regarded as one of the best in baseball. His velocity is up, touching 98 mph with his sinker, making him a nightmare for hitters who must gear up for heat only to be fooled by his devastating off-speed stuff. Over the past two seasons, Sánchez has quietly emerged as a reliable force, combining elite contact management, strong control, and an ability to go deep into games, which keeps the Phillies’ bullpen fresh and the team in contention.
On the other side, Griffin Canning has shown flashes of effectiveness, most recently striking out eight over six innings against the Cardinals. However, his track record is marred by inconsistency and a history of command lapses, with a career-high ERA of 5.19 last year and a declining strikeout rate. While his last outing was solid, analysts remain skeptical of his ability to sustain this level, especially against a Phillies lineup that can punish mistakes. With Sánchez’s continued ascent and the Phillies’ offensive depth, Philadelphia holds the edge in this matchup and is well-positioned to secure the win over Canning and the Mets.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are surging into Tuesday’s matchup with momentum and confidence, and Griffin Canning is a big reason why they’re poised to top Cristopher Sánchez and the Phillies. Canning has delivered a strong start to his Mets tenure, posting a 3.43 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 21 innings, including an impressive eight-strikeout, one-run outing against the Cardinals in his last start. He’s been particularly sharp at Citi Field, where the Mets have been nearly unbeatable, boasting a dominant 9-1 home record this season. The Mets’ offense, led by stars like Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, has consistently responded in key moments, overcoming bullpen hiccups and delivering clutch hits, as seen in their recent sweep of St. Louis. This balanced attack gives Canning plenty of support and allows him to pitch aggressively.
Meanwhile, the Phillies’ lineup has hit a rough patch, struggling to find consistency and production from key bats. Alec Bohm’s ongoing slump and the bottom of the order’s lack of punch have contributed to a recent 2-5 slide, with the team shut out twice in their last series and several hitters mired in deep funks. With the Mets thriving at home and Canning showing signs of a mid-career resurgence, New York is well-positioned to continue their hot streak and hand the Phillies another tough loss on Tuesday.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
Tuesday’s matchup between the Mets and Phillies promises a tight contest, but the edge goes to New York. Griffin Canning is coming off his best start of the season and looks increasingly comfortable at Citi Field, where the Mets have been dominant. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ offense has cooled, with key hitters struggling to deliver in big moments. Cristopher Sánchez has shown flashes of brilliance, but the Mets’ balanced lineup and recent momentum should prove decisive. Expect a competitive game with Canning outdueling Sánchez, and the Mets’ bullpen locking down a close victory to continue their strong home stand.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York Mets (+116), Under 8 (-115)
