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The Philadelphia Phillies will continue their four-game series with the New York Mets as the NL East rivals clash in Queens. We're live from Citi Field, sharing our MLB odds series and making a Phillies-Mets prediction and pick.
Phillies-Mets Projected Starters
Ranger Suarez vs. Sean Manaea
Ranger Suarez (12-7) with a 3.13 ERA
Last Start: Suarez went five innings in his last outing, allowing three earned runs and four hits while striking out five and walking three in a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.
2024 Road Splits: Suarez is 7-5 with a 2.78 ERA over 13 starts away from Citizens Bank Park.
Sean Manaea (11-5) with a 3.26 ERA
Last Start: Manaea dominated in his last outing, going seven innings while allowing one earned run on four hits while striking out six in a no-decision against the Washington Nationals.
2024 Home Splits: Manaea has been slightly worse at home, going 5-3 with a 3.74 ERA over 15 starts at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+162)
Moneyline: -108
New York Mets: +1.5 (-196)
Moneyline: -108
Over: 7.5 (+102)
Under: 7.5 (-124)
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How to Watch Phillies vs. Mets
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT
TV: SNNY
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies have led the National League for the majority of the season. Yet, they are fighting off the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot and the Mets for the division. They need their offense to start things for them.
Trea Turner has had good moments throughout the last two months. Also, things continued on Thursday when he battered a two-run home run. Kyle Schwarber is quietly having a better season than last year. With eight games left in the season, Schwarber will likely finish with 100 RBIs and still has some time to add to his home run tally. Bryce Harper is also having a good season, even with time missed. Significantly, he may finish with 30 home runs and 90 RBIs by the time the season ends. Alec Bohm leads the team in hits. Substantially, he has been great and one of the best sparks in the lineup. Nick Castellanos is also a good hitter who can do some damage.
Suarez is 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA over 10 games against the Mets since 2020. Ultimately, he has been solid this season. When Suarez exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 14th in team ERA. Additionally, they have a mixture of relievers who are taking the lead as the closer.
The Phillies will cover the spread if their top hitters can continue clobbering the baseball. Then, they need Suarez to find his pitches and for the bullpen to avoid collapsing.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are still technically alive in the NL East division race with eight games left to play. Also, they are currently clinging to the final wildcard spot in the NL. If they can maintain this spot, this would set them up for a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers. Yet, if they can keep winning, they can jump the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres and start the wildcard at home. They must get their offense going to make that happen.
Jeff McNeil is out. Unfortunately, he is dealing with an injury. Francisco Lindor is dealing with back issues. Because of this, he did not play on Thursday, and that could hurt them. Others stepped up on Thursday. Significantly, Jose Iglesias, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos all had two hits each, with Nimmo garnering three RBIs and Vientos getting two. This did a lot to help Pete Alonso, who battered a solo home run.
Manaea has struggled against the Phillies. So far, he is just 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA over five games against them. Thus, he must avoid making critical mistakes against a loaded lineup. When Manaea finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 16th in team ERA. Edwin Diaz has not been the best, but he is still doing enough as the closer to shut things down.
The Mets will cover the spread if they can batter some hits and drive runners home to chase Suarez. Then, they need Manaea to make critical pitches and not allow Harper, Turner, or Schwarber to take him deep.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Phillies came into Friday leading the head-to-head series 6-4. Moreover, the game on Thursday was the first time the Mets beat them at Citi Field. The Phillies came into the weekend with a 76-77 mark against the run line, while the Mets were 80-73. Also, the Phillies are 39-35 against the run line on the road, while the Mets are 38-39 at home. Suarez is the better bet here, as he has done well against the Mets. Consequently, he will be too much for the Mets.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+162)
