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We're back and bringing you another betting prediction and pick as the UFC touches back down in The Apex for UFC Vegas 92. This next bout takes place in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division as Venezuela's Piera Rodriguez takes on Brazil's Ariane Carnelossi. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rodriguez-Carnelossi prediction and pick.
Piera Rodriguez (9-1) comes into this fight with a 2-1 record in the UFC following her contract-win on Dana White's Contender Series. After notching back-to-back wins over Kay Hansen and Sam Hughes, she lost her most recent bout to Gillian Robertson by submission. She steps in here looking for another resume-building win as the betting favorite. Rodriguez stands 5'3″ with a 63.5-inch reach.
Ariane Carnelossi (14-3) has gone 2-2 in the UFC since 2019. She was able to pick up wins over Liang Na and Estela Nunes via finish, but lost her most recent bout to Lupita Godinez by unanimous decision. Her last bout was over two years ago and she'll finally be making her return as the betting underdog once again. Carnelossi stands 5'2″ with a 61.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 92 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Vegas 92 Odds: Piera Rodriguez-Ariane Carnelossi Odds
Piera Rodriguez: -220
Ariane Carnelossi: +185
Over 2.5 rounds: -250
Under 2.5 rounds: +200
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Why Piera Rodriguez Will Win
Piera Rodriguez comes into this fight as a very solid striker with a mean-streak when boxing in the pocket. She fights with a low stance and throws very hard hooks when engaging with her opponent. She's more of a counter-striker and typically waits for her opponent to make the first move until returning with hard shots. Rodriguez is very aggressive when fighting in the clinch and she's quick to throw elbows and knees up the middle. Look for Rodriguez to wait for Carnelossi to waver until she pours it on in the later rounds.
Piera Rodriguez will be the much more fluid striker on her feet, but she doesn't have the same kind of knockout power that her opponent carries. She also can't risk being hit first on too many occasions, so it'll be important for Rodriguez to initial the striking and discourage Carnelossi from gaining any confidence throughout this fight. If she's able to keep this fight at range and use her reach advantage, she should be able to box her way to a decision here.
Why Ariane Carnelossi Will Win
Ariane Carnelossi is an absolute physical specimen in this division and we've seen her use her strength advantage numerous times against opponents when fighting on the ground. Her striking is technically sound, but she tends to labor her movements in the later rounds and isn't typically known for her hand speed. Nevertheless, against a counter-striker like Rodriguez, Carnelossi could see success waiting for the entries and tying her opponent up in the clinch along the fence. She's been out of action for two years now, so expect her to take her time in getting back to a fighting rhythm.
Ariane Carnelossi is the more consistent finisher of these two fighters and if this fight ends within the distance, it can be expected that Carnelossi will be on the right side of a finish. It will be interesting to see what changes she's made to her body and fighting style. Clearly, she's had plenty of time to identify holes in her game and we should be seeing the best version of Ariane Carnelossi when she steps back into the octagon on Saturday.
Final Piera Rodriguez-Ariane Carnelossi Prediction & Pick
This will be a very interesting fight in terms of the striking as neither woman typically searches for the finish when fighting. Ariane Carnelossi is the much stronger and more powerful fighter of the two and she'll have to better chance of finishing this fight inside the distance. Piera Rodriguez, however, is the much more technical striker and if the bout goes her way, we should see a three-round striking affair that sees her take the decision win.
Activity is a big factor in this fight and the two-year layoff for Carnelossi could be a tough obstacle to overcome. Piera Rodriguez starts fast and if she immediately brings the action to Carnelossi, she could force her into some adversity during this fight. Her hands are much faster and she's more accustomed to back-and-forth striking brawls against other tough opponents.
For our prediction, let's roll with Piera Rodriguez to get the decision win. She's just the more-active fighter at the moment and given her aggressive nature, I don't expect Carnelossi to react too well to her attack. Let's also ride the over as we see this fight go to the judges' scorecards.
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Final Piera Rodriguez-Ariane Carnelossi Prediction & Pick: Piera Rodriguez (-220); Over 2.5 Rounds (-250)
