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The MLB season continues as the Pittsburgh Pirates look to pick up the win on the road in New York when they take on the Mets in the second game of their series on Tuesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Mets prediction and pick.
Pirates-Mets Projected Starters
Mitch Keller vs. Kodai Senga
Mitch Keller – (1-4) with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP
Last Start: Keller took the loss Wednesday as the Pirates fell 5-0 to the Cardinals, giving up three runs on seven hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out six.
2025 Road Splits: Keller has been more efficient on the road than at home this season, where he is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 18 innings.
Kodai Senga – (4-2) with a 1.16 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP
Last Start: Senga earned the win Wednesday over the Diamondbacks, allowing two hits and six walks over six scoreless innings. He struck out four.
2025 Home Splits: Senga has been dominant at home in limited action, where he is 2-1 with a 0.61 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 14.2 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Mets Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +198
New York Mets: -1.5 (-111)
Moneyline: -240
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
How To Watch Pirates vs. Mets
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
TV: AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh, SportsNet New York, MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
Mitch Keller and the Pirates have a strong case to take down Kodai Senga and the Mets on Tuesday, thanks to Keller’s recent consistency and the Pirates’ quietly productive offense. Keller, despite a 1-4 record, has delivered five quality starts in eight outings this season and has allowed more than three runs only twice, maintaining a 4.40 ERA and a 35:15 K:BB ratio over 45 innings. His fastball, which sits in the mid-90s with above-average life, and his improving curveball have helped him generate swings and misses, while his command allows him to limit damage and keep the Pirates in games. If Keller can continue to execute his pitches and keep the ball on the ground, he’s well-positioned to neutralize a Mets lineup that, despite preseason hype, has shown inconsistency beyond its top stars.
Offensively, the Pirates have been effective at creating scoring opportunities, ranking fourth in the NL in hits and showing an ability to string together rallies. The Mets’ offense, while potent at the top, has struggled with depth and production at several positions, leaving them vulnerable if the big bats are contained. Senga’s impressive 1.16 ERA is tempered by a rising walk rate and some good fortune in stranding runners. If the Pirates can stay patient, work counts, and capitalize on any lapses in Senga’s command, they have the tools to scratch out runs and support Keller. Look for the Pirates to leverage their contact-oriented approach and Keller’s steady hand to edge out the Mets in a tightly contested matchup.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
Kodai Senga and the Mets are in a strong position to defeat Mitch Keller and the Pirates on Tuesday, thanks to Senga’s dominance and the Mets’ well-rounded offense. Senga enters the matchup with a 1.16 ERA over seven starts, the best in the National League, and has consistently limited opponents with his devastating forkball and a new sinker that’s kept hitters off balance. Even when his strikeout rate has dipped, Senga’s command and ability to avoid home runs have allowed him to work deep into games, as seen in his recent seven-inning shutout against the Athletics. His health and sharpness this season have been key, and the Mets’ rotation as a whole leads the majors with a 2.71 ERA.
On the offensive side, the Mets have surged to the top of the NL East and are getting contributions throughout the lineup. In contrast, the Pirates’ offense has struggled mightily, ranking last in MLB in batting average (.190), slugging percentage (.297), and OPS (.578), with frequent strikeouts and limited run production. While Keller has pitched well at times, his 4.40 ERA and lack of run support suggest the Mets will have the upper hand. Expect Senga to keep the Pirates’ bats quiet while the Mets’ offense capitalizes on opportunities to secure a convincing win.
Final Pirates-Mets Prediction & Pick
Expect Kodai Senga to set the tone early with his electric forkball and improved command, keeping the Pirates’ struggling offense in check. Mitch Keller should keep things close for a few innings, but the Mets’ balanced lineup-led by Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso-will eventually break through. Look for the Mets to manufacture runs with timely hitting and aggressive baserunning. Mets come away with the win with Senga striking out at least eight and earning his fifth victory of the season.
Final Pirates-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets ML (-240), Over 7.5 (-115)
