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On Monday, the Boston Red Sox will begin a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. It will be an American League East showdown as we continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick.
Red Sox-Royals Projected Starters
Tanner Houck vs. Ryan Pepiot
Tanner Houck (0-1) with a 4.41 ERA
Last Start: Houck dominated in his last start, going 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run on five hits, striking out two, and walking two in a no-decision against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Away Splits: Houck has struggled on the road, going 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA over two starts away from Fenway Park.
Shane Baez (1-0) with a 1.38 ERA
Last Start: Baez went seven innings in his last outing, allowing just two earned runs on three hits while striking out six and walking four in a no-decision against the Los Angeles Angels.
Home Splits: Baez is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA over two starts at George M. Steinbrenner Stadium this season.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline: -102
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-194)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
How to Watch Red Sox vs. Rays
Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT
TV: TBA
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
Article Continues Below
The Red Sox stumbled against the Chicago White Sox this past weekend. Substantially, they looked awful throughout the series and have gone 2-5 over their past seven games. Something has to change.
Rafael Devers is heating up and playing some of his best baseball after struggling early in the season. He is currently hitting .250 with one home run, nine RBIs, and eight runs. Still, Devers must cut down on the strikeouts. Once again, it haunted him against the White Sox as he struck out five times in three games. Alex Bregman has hit the baseball well, batting .290 with two home runs, 12 RBIs, and eight runs. Wilyer Abreu has also done well, hitting .340 with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and 12 runs. However, Jarren Duran has struggled to hit the ball consistently well, batting .229 with no home runs, eight RBIs, and six runs.
The Red Sox are ninth in batting average and on-base percentage. Additionally, they are sixth in runs, 22nd in home runs, and 18th in slugging percentage.
Houck will attempt to keep the Red Sox competitive. When he exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 20th in team ERA. Aroldis Chapman is the closer and is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and two saves.
The Red Sox will cover the spread if Devers and Duran can place the baseball and get on base while the others contribute. Then, they need Houck to locate the strike zone and go deep in the game.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays continue overcoming adversity and staying in it, even without a stadium. Ultimately, they have gotten contributions from unexpected places.
Kameron Misner has been great, batting .361 with one home run, six RBIs, and six runs. Meanwhile, Jose Caballero is hitting .333 with one home run, eight RBIs, and three runs. Jake Magnum is batting .286 with one home run, four RBIs, and four runs. Likewise, Christopher Morel is hitting .268 with one home run, four RBIs, and six runs.
The Rays are fourth in batting average, 10th in on-base percentage, 21st in runs, 20th in home runs, and 12th in slugging percentage. Overall, they are hitting the ball well and consistently putting it into play.
Pepiot will look to fool the Boston hitters and avoid mistakes. When he leaves the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is tied for 18th in team ERA. Pete Fairbanks has been one of the few constants in this bullpen. So far, he is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and three saves.
The Rays will cover the spread if they can continue to string some hits together to generate some runs. Then, Pepiot will need to avoid making mistakes and get through a tough lineup.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Red Sox are 8-9 against the spread, while the Rays are 5-10. Also, the Sox are 6-4 against the spread on the road, while the Rays are 5-7 against the spread at home.
The Red Sox and Rays are hovering around .500, and neither has played to its potential yet. However, the Rays will have the better starting pitcher. That means a lot, especially when both have relatively good lineups. It will be the difference in this game as the Rays cover the spread at home.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-194)
