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The MLB season continues as the Boston Red Sox look to pick up the win on the road in Kansas City when they take on the Royals in their series finale on Sunday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Royals prediction and pick.
Red Sox-Royals Projected Starters
Lucas Giolito vs. Seth Lugo
Lucas Giolito – (0-1) with an 8.38 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP
Last Start: Giolito yielded six runs on 10 hits and a walk over 3.2 innings Tuesday, striking out two and taking a loss against Texas.
2025 Road Splits: In his lone road game this season, Giolito gave up three earned runs on five hits while striking out seven in six innings against the Blue Jays.
Seth Lugo – (3-3) with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP
Last Start: Lugo allowed two runs (one earned) on seven hits and three walks while striking out three in 6.2 innings Tuesday against the White Sox. He did not factor into the decision.
2025 Home Splits: Lugo has been dominant at home with a 2-1 record, 2.01 ERA, and 1.12 WHIP in 31.1 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Royals Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: +110
Kansas City Royals: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -130
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How To Watch Red Sox vs. Royals
Article Continues Below
Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10 PM PT
TV: NESN, MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV
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Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
Lucas Giolito and the Boston Red Sox are primed to outduel Seth Lugo and the Kansas City Royals on Sunday, thanks to a combination of Giolito’s upside and a Red Sox lineup that is beginning to find its rhythm. Giolito, after a long layoff due to injury, is finally healthy and back in the rotation, steadily increasing his workload with each outing. While his early numbers in 2025 (8.38 ERA in two starts) are inflated, much of that stems from rust and limited pitch counts as he returns to form. Giolito’s track record as a high-strikeout starter and his ability to miss bats give Boston a critical edge, especially against a Royals offense that has been one of the least productive in baseball outside of Bobby Witt Jr..
Offensively, the Red Sox have the firepower to support Giolito. Alex Bregman (.319 AVG, 22 RBI), Trevor Story (5 HR), and emerging on-base machine Kristian Campbell (.412 OBP) headline a lineup with both veteran presence and young upside. While Boston’s offense has battled inconsistency and strikeout issues, they remain deeper and more dynamic than Kansas City’s, which has struggled to find contributors beyond Witt and Maikel Garcia. If Giolito can keep the Royals’ top bats in check, Boston’s superior lineup should be able to generate enough run support against Lugo, whose recent strong outings may not be enough to overcome Kansas City’s offensive limitations. Expect the Red Sox to capitalize on their offensive depth and Giolito’s swing-and-miss stuff to secure a key road win.
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Seth Lugo and the Kansas City Royals are well-positioned to take down Lucas Giolito and the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, riding the momentum of Lugo’s steady excellence and a Royals offense that has recently found its stride. Lugo, coming off a 2024 season where he finished second in the AL Cy Young race, has continued to deliver in 2025 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, effectively limiting both right- and left-handed hitters. His ability to generate weak contact, paired with one of the nastiest curveballs in the league, is further amplified by Kansas City’s elite infield defense and the pitcher-friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. Lugo’s durability and command give the Royals a clear edge in a matchup against a still-recovering Giolito.
While the Royals’ offense has struggled for consistency, their recent surge-winning 11 of their last 13 games-shows signs of a turnaround. Bobby Witt Jr. remains the centerpiece, but contributions from Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey have helped spark timely rallies. Even as the lineup is viewed as a weakness, Kansas City’s ability to manufacture runs and capitalize on opponent mistakes has been crucial during their hot streak. With Lugo’s reliability on the mound and a lineup gaining confidence, the Royals have the formula to outlast Boston and secure a pivotal win on Sunday.
Final White Sox-Royals Prediction & Pick
Sunday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Royals promises to be a close battle. Seth Lugo’s consistency and command give Kansas City a strong advantage, especially at home, where he’s been nearly untouchable. The Royals’ offense, led by Bobby Witt Jr. and boosted by recent contributions from Vinnie Pasquantino, is showing signs of life at just the right time. While Lucas Giolito’s return adds intrigue for Boston, his recent struggles make it tough to trust. Expect Lugo and the Royals to edge out the Red Sox in a close victory.
Final Red Sox-Royals Prediction & Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (-130), Under 8.5 (-105)
