Subscribe
Follow Us
The Cincinnati Reds and Baltimore Orioles square off in a rubber match Wednesday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Orioles prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
In the series, Spencer Steer and T.J Friedl have been the top hitters for Cincinnati. They have three hits each and they both have gone yard. Matt McLain has two hits, including a home run, as well. However, the Reds have just 12 hits in the two games and are hitting a whopping .182 on the series. The Reds have a 5.29 ERA in the two games, but it is mainly because they allowed 10 runs in the first game of the series. Game two saw Andrew Abbott continue his hot start while Alexis Diaz picked up his 22nd save of the season. Cincinnati has allowed just 15 hits, but they have walked 15, as well.
Jordan Westburg has been great in his debut series as he is 3-7, but he has not extra base hits. As a team, the Orioles have just three extra base hits this series, and they are all doubles. Baltimore's 12 hits in game one has helped them have a .250 batting average this series. On the mound, the Orioles have given up just three runs in both games. They have allowed just 12 hits in 18 innings while walking only five. Baltimore has 20 strikeouts, as well.
Luke Weaver will take the ball for Cincinnati while Kyle Gibson toes the rubber for Baltimore.
Here are the Reds-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Orioles Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-140)
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 9.5 (-105)
Under: 9.5 (-115)
How To Watch Reds vs. Orioles
TV: Bally Sports Ohio, MASN
Stream: MLB TV Subscription
Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds will need to hit and provide plenty of run support in this game. Kyle Gibson is on the mound, and although his numbers are not horrible, they are not great either. He has allowed 93 hits on the season, giving opponents a batting average of .268. In his last 15 1/3 innings (three starts), Gibson has allowed 11 runs on 17 hits. He has been leaving the ball over the plate lately and becoming very hittable. The Reds will need to see the ball in the zone and find some gaps if they want to take the rubber match.
Gibson is in the bottom 25th percentile or lower in hard hit percentage, xBA, xSLG, xERA, strikeout percentage, chase rate, fastball velocity, and he is in the 29th percentile in whiff percentage. According to those advanced statistics, Gibson is not having a great season. He does not get a lot of people to swing and miss and the contact he allows is loud. The Reds should be able to have a good game at the plate in this game.
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Just like Gibson, Weaver is not having a good season. Weaver has an ERA over 6.00 and has allowed 78 hits in 60 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .310 off him this season, so the Orioles have a chance to rack up a lot of hits. Baltimore is top-13 in the league in batting average, OPS, home runs, and runs scored. Baltimore should be able to see the ball a little better in this game with Weaver on the mound.
Of qualified pitchers, Weaver has the sixth highest xSLG, ninth highest barrel percentage, and he is in the bottom-30 of xBA and average exit velocity, and hard hit percentage. In the month of June, Weaver has an ERA over 10.00, and has allowed 28 hits in 16 2/3 innings. The Orioles should be able to make some hard and loud contact in this game and get to Weaver.
Final Reds-Orioles Prediction & Pick
This game has the potential to be a 10-9 final score. However, I will go with the pitcher that is having a better season. Expect the Orioles to win this game and cover the spread.
Final Reds-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+116), Over 9.5 (-105)
