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The Cincinnati Reds are hanging onto their playoff hopes as they face Cleveland Guardians. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Guardians prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Yesterday was a slugfest for the Reds and Guardians. It started in the third inning as Bo Naylor hit a home run that drove in three runs. The Reds fired back with a Luke Maile home run, Spencer Steer triple and Christian Encarnacion-Strand home run to give them a 4-3 lead, that would not last. Kole Calhoun and Andres Gimenez hit back-to-back shots in the bottom of the third to re-take the lead. Elly De La Cruz would hit his first home run of the day in the fourth, drive in two more in the fifth, and hit another home run in the ninth, as the Reds took an 11-7 victory.
With the win, the Reds are 81-77 on the season. That places them just 1.5 games out in the Wild Card race. Meanwhile, the Guardians have fallen to 74-84 in what could be the last season for Terry Francona.
Here are the Reds-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Guardians Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-200)
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+164)
Over: 7.5 (-120)
Under: 7.5 (-102)
How To Watch Reds vs. Guardians
TV: BSOH/BSGL
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 6:10 PM ET/ 3:10 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds offense exploded for 11 runs last night, the second time in three games they have scored over ten runs. On the year, the Reds are tenth in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 17th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage, and 15th in slugging. Elly De La Cruz put on a show last night. He is hitting .294 in the last week with four RBIs and two home runs. He has also stolen four bases and scored six times in the last week.
The leader in the last week has been TJ Friedl. Friedl has hit .471 in the last week with a .625 on-base percentage. He has four home runs in the last week with a double. That had helped him drive in eight RBIs. Friedl has also stolen two bases and scored six runs in the last week. Meanwhile, Christian Encarnacion-Strand is hitting well. Encarnacion-Strand is hitting .350 in the last week with a .409 on-base percentage. He also has four home runs in the last week, which has led to eight RBIs. Encarnacion-Strand has scored six runs in the last week as well.
Meanwhile, Luke Maile has made the most of his chances at the plate. He is hitting .556 in the last week with a .600 on-base percentage. He has a home run and four RBIs. Maile has also stolen a base and scored twice in the last week. The Reds are hitting .262 as a team in the last week, with 12 home runs in their last five games. They have scored 35 runs in that period, averaging seven runs per game.
The biggest issue for the Reds as of late has been pitching. While they are scoring a lot of runs as of late, they are not winning as they are giving up a lot of runs. On the year, the Reds are 25th in team ERA, while sitting 24th in WHIP and 24th in opponent batting average. It will be Andrew Abbott on the mound for the Reds today. He is 8-5 this year with a 3.70 ERA. His last two starts have not been long ones, going just eight innings combined and giving up four runs.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
The Guardians put up seven runs last night, but it was not enough to overcome the Reds on-slaught. On the season the Guardians are tied for 26th in runs scored whole sitting 14th in batting average, 24th in on-base percentage, and 28th in slugging. Kole Calhoun has been a big part of the run production as of late. He has a home run and a double in the last week, leading to five RBIs. Still, he is hitting just .105 in the last week.
Andres Gimenez has also been driving in runs. He is hitting .364 in the last week. In that time he has hit a double and two home runs This has led to him driving in four runs and scoring five times in the last six games. Meanwhile, Bo Naylor is also producing. In the last week, he is hitting .286 with a .500 on-base percentage. With a home run to his credit, he has driven in four runs while scoring four times.
As a whole, the Guardians are hitting just .224 in the last week with a .284 on-base percentage. They have hit just four home runs while stealing four bases. This has led to them scoring 25 times in the last week on an expected 20.5 runs.
The Guardians will send Shane Bieber to the mound today to make the start. He is 5-6 on the year with a 3.91 ERA. Beiber just made his first start since July 9th last week. In that game, he went five innings, giving up five runs. Only four were earned in the game, and he struck out five. Beiber has struggled a lot this year. In his last 14 starts, he has given up four or more runs seven times.
Final Reds-Guardians Prediction & Pick
When Shane Bieber is at the top of his game, he would give the Guardians a major pitching edge today. He has not been in his only start back, and even before that was struggling. Meanwhile, Andrew Abbot has not been great for the Reds. He will not go deep into this game, meaning it could be a lot of the bullpen today. That has not gone great for the Reds as of late. Regardless, of how the Reds are hitting, expect another slugfest in this game. The Reds are fighting for their playoff lives and need to make every game count. The young players are finding their grove again, and they always have Joey Votto available to come in for a big at-bat. With that, expect the Reds to slug themselves to another victory.
Final Reds-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Reds +1.5 (-200)
