Subscribe
Follow Us
The Cincinnati Reds (31-35) visit the Kansas City Royals (18-47) for the first of a three-game series. First pitch commences Monday at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Royals prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Reds-Royals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Royals Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+164)
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-200)
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
How To Watch Reds vs. Royals
TV: MLB Network, Bally Sports
Stream: MLB.tv, ESPN+
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET/ 5:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Reds-Royals LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 5-5 (Third in the NL Central)
Run Line Record: 39-27 (59%)
Over Record: 37-29 (56%)
The Reds have gone from afterthought to must-see-TV in a matter of weeks thanks to the call-ups of numerous top prospects. Chief among those is infielder Elly De La Cruz – with whom the Reds are 4-2 with series wins over the Dodgers and Cardinals. Now just four games back of the first-place Pirates, the Reds have realistic playoff hopes given their young talent and weak division. Still, Cincinnati continues to lack pitching depth, allowing the second-most runs in the National League. Consequently, the Reds need an improved start from Luke Weaver if they want to cover as road favorites tonight.
Righty Luke Weaver (1-2) makes his 10th start of the season for the Reds tonight. The 29-year-old has struggled mightily this season as he currently holds a 6.27 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Despite featuring excellent control (88th percentile in walk rate), Weaver allows a boatload of hard contact and doesn't generate enough whiffs to make his strong command viable. He's coming off an abysmal start in which he gave up seven runs in just 3.2 innings against the Dodgers. That marked the sixth time in nine starts Weaver allowed at least four runs. Although he's actually pitched better on the road this season, his brutal ERA and batting average allowed make him hard to trust tonight.
The aforementioned Elly De La Cruz will be the name everyone's watching tonight – and for good reason. Through his first six games, Elly owns a .364 average, 14 total bases, and three steals. However, he's far from the only Reds rookie worth monitoring tonight. Corner infielder Spencer Steer has been a revelation – leading the team with a .282 average and eight home runs. Shortstop Matt McLain already looks like a seasoned vet thanks to his .336 batting average and team-leading .905 OPS.
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 1-9 (Fifth in the AL Central)
Run Line Record: 22-43 (34%)
Over Record: 27-36-2 (43%)
After making some noise earlier in the season, the Royals have fallen off a cliff – dropping nine of their last 10 games. Their 18 wins rank second to last behind only the Oakland A's and they've cemented themselves at the bottom of the single-worst division in baseball. Despite some young talent, Kansas City can't seem to score (29th in runs) or defend (28th in runs allowed) at any sort of an average rate. With the second-worst run differential in the league, the Royals face an uphill battle covering tonight despite being home underdogs. They're aided by the Reds trotting out a weak start but will still need their offense to show up if they want to cover.
Righty Zack Greinke (1-6) makes his 14th start of the season for the Royals tonight. The 39-year-old former Cy Young winner has clearly taken a step back this season as he owns a 4.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Although Greinke's strikeout rate is up from last season, it's still far below his career average. He continues to exhibit excellent command (97th percentile walk rate) but can't generate whiffs at the same rate as earlier in his carer.
That said, Greinke showed out in May – holding a 2.30 ERA in 31.1 innings after an ERA north of 6.00 in the opening month. He came back to earth in his most recent start, however, when the Marlins pegged him for five runs in just 4.1 innings. Still, the Reds have struggled against righties compared to lefties this season and Greinke has looked better at home – perhaps providing a path to his second quality start of the year.
While the Royals' offense has struggled mightily this season, you can't blame Salvador Perez. The veteran catcher continues to output strong production from behind the plate. He leads Kansas City with a .273 average, 13 home runs, ad 36 RBI. Sophomore phenom Bobby Witt Jr. has finally started picking things up after a sluggish start to the year. Over his last nine games, Witt owns a .306 average – although he's slugging just .333 over that span.
Final Reds-Royals Prediction & Pick
With these squads headed in opposite directions, I'll lean toward the Reds as they continue their ascension to the top of the Central.
Final Reds-Royals Prediction & Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+164)
