For the first time since 2019, veteran Ricardo Ramos (17-7) will fight in his home country when he takes on Kaan Ofli (11-4-1) at UFC Rio. It is time to continue our UFC odds series with our Ramos-Ofli prediction and pick.
Ramos, 30, has faltered from his early hot start in the UFC, going just 1-3 in his last four fights and 3-5 since 2020. The flashy Brazilian rebounded from his first two-fight skid with a win over Josh Culibao at UFC 305, but has since suffered another loss to Chepe Mariscal at UFC Vegas 103.
Ofli, 32, is making his third official walk to the Octagon since finishing as the TUF 32 runner-up. The Aussie is still seeking his first win in the promotion after getting knocked out by Mairon Santos in the season finale and losing a unanimous decision against Muhammad Naimov in his second outing.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio Odds: Ricardo Ramos-Kaan Ofli Odds
Ricardo Ramos: -185
Kaan Ofli: +154
Over 2.5 rounds: -140
Under 2.5 rounds: +110
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Why Ricardo Ramos Will Win
Ramos looked like a legitimate prospect early in his UFC career, winning five of his first six fights in the Octagon. His career now makes him seem more like a gatekeeper — only one of the eight fighters he has beaten in the UFC is still signed to the promotion — but that still favors him over Ofli, who has yet to secure a win on the big stage.
Ramos is not a technical striker by any means, but he will hold that edge over Ofli. ‘Genghis' has only managed to land 43 total significant strikes in his two UFC fights. He lands them at a decent rate, 45 percent, but fails to throw enough volume to even threaten anybody on the feet. Ofli will now have to overcome Ramos' six-inch reach advantage to break into range, which he has not shown an ability to do.
Like Ramos, Ofli wants to take this fight to the mat. Ramos has struggled against pressure wrestlers before, but that is not Ofli's style. The Aussie has yet to land a takedown in the UFC and has nothing even resembling a viable way to set up his shots.
Why Kaan Ofli Will Win
Ofli is already 0-2 in the UFC and now faces a 13-fight promotional veteran with his job potentially on the line. Ramos is more experienced than his previous two opponents, but there is a legitimate case to be made that he is a step down in competition from Mairon Santos and Muhammad Naimov.
Ramos might officially be 1-3 in his last four fights, but he should really be on a four-fight skid. He was gifted a win over Josh Culibao at UFC 305, partially due to the poor fight IQ of ‘Kuya,' but the judges also did Ramos a favor. Culibao landed 70 significant strikes to Ramos' 27 in that fight while also recording a knockdown in the second round.
As a grappler, Ofli's main issues have been on the feet, as his striking was not nearly diverse enough to threaten either Santos or Naimov. He faces a significant reach disadvantage against Ramos, but the skill gap is not as wide. Ramos' striking is limited to wayward spin attacks and wild overhands. He prefers to take the fight to the ground, which plays into the fight that Ofli wants.
Final Ricardo Ramos-Kaan Ofli Prediction & Pick
On paper, this should be a clear win for Ramos, who has proven capable of winning against UFC-level competition. It has been a while since he has looked good, but Ofli has gotten dominated in each of his first two UFC bouts, likely putting him on the brink of unemployment.
However, as a wrestler, Ofli can give Ramos trouble. Ramos has been submitted in two of his last three losses, and he has wilted under strong grappling pressure before. Ofli has not showcased that ability in the Octagon, but he has picked up the majority of his wins by submission, albeit on the regional scene.
Ramos should be able to land takedowns against Ofli, but the latter proved to be capable off his back in his most recent fight against Muhammad Naimov, who had to out-strike him to get the victory. Ramos is not the most dynamic striker, but he will be the physically larger fighter with slightly more tools in his bag. That should be enough to get the victory in this fight against a limited opponent.
The pick is Ramos, but not with much confidence. But with both fighters playing into each other's strengths, there is some value on the over.
Final Ricardo Ramos-Kaan Ofli Prediction & Pick: Ricardo Ramos (-180), Over 2.5 (-140)
