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The Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants will finish up a four-game series on Sunday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Rockies-Giants prediction and pick.
Both of these teams play in the ultra-competitive NL West, and neither was expected to contend in the division at the start of the year. The Rockies have fit that expectation, as they currently sit 23 games back of first place. The Giants, on the other hand, have been one of the most surprising teams in baseball. They lead the division despite the presence of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. San Francisco will look to build on their four-game lead by securing this four-game series with a win.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Sunday's matchup.
MLB Odds: Rockies-Giants Odds
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Colorado Rockies +1 1/2 (-120)
San Francisco Giants -1 1/2 (+100)
Over 8 runs (-113)
Under 8 runs (-107)
Why The Rockies Could Cover The Spread
When the Rockies have come across a win this season, it's usually due to a good pitching performance from their starter. Pitcher Jon Gray will have a chance to continue that trend in this matchup.
Gray has been solid this season, posting a 3.85 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP on the year. The righty's numbers improve in his last seven starts, as Gray earned a 3.76 ERA over that span. He's already faced San Francisco once this season, pitching six innings while allowing only two runs. A repeat performance is certainly not out of the question for Gray.
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The Rockies will be facing Giants starter Alex Wood. Wood started off the season with a great stretch of starts, but he's cooled off considerably since then. Over his last seven starts Wood has earned a 4.82 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Those are very hittable numbers, and it helps that the Rockies are significantly better against left-handed pitching. A rare strong offensive performance from Colorado could be in the cards.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
San Francisco is one of the better offensive teams in the MLB. They rank inside the top ten in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. The Giants are also on a huge hot streak at the plate, scoring more than four runs in eight of their last ten games.
To make things even better, San Francisco also has some statistical edges over Gray. The Rockies starter is significantly worse when he pitches on the road, earning a 4.56 ERA when he's away from home. Gray's opponent's average also rises from .186 in Coors field to .279 anywhere else. This Giants offense that has turned into one of the league's best shouldn't have any trouble scoring some early runs off of Gray.
Alex Wood may not have the most impressive numbers over his recent starts, but he's proven that he can handle the Rockies. The lefty has faced the Rockies twice this season, pitching a combined 11 innings in those appearances while only allowing four runs. There's no reason Wood shouldn't replicate those starts and put together a good start.
Final Rockies-Giants Prediction & Pick
Picking the Rockies to cover is tempting, but it isn't the right pick here. The under is a better pick, as both of these pitchers have a good history against their opponents. It would be a huge surprise to see the Rockies put up more than three runs in this one, so barring a great offensive game from the Giants, the under should survive.
FINAL PICK: Under 8 runs (-107)
