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Talented grapplers collide at UFC Vegas 102 when former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Rodolfo Vieira (10-2) meets Andre Petroski (12-3). It is time to continue our UFC odds series with a Vieira-Petroski prediction and pick.
Vieira, one of the best submission grapplers to transition to MMA, has largely flexed his muscles in the UFC. He has gone 5-2 in the Octagon and enters UFC Vegas 102 off consecutive victories. Most recently, he submitted Armen Petrosyan in the first round in February 2024.
Petroski also enters the matchup on a two-fight win streak, both by decision. He last fought Dylan Budka at UFC Vegas 97, picking up his seventh win in the Octagon since entering the promotion through season 29 of “The Ultimate Fighter.”
Here are the UFC Vegas 102 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 102 Odds: Rodolfo Vieira-Andre Petroski Odds
Rodolfo Vieira: -278
Andre Petroski: +225
Over 1.5 rounds: -195
Under 1.5 rounds: +150
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Why Rodolfo Vieira Will Win
In a battle between two grapple-heavy fighters, Vieira is the better fighter on the mat. If this was a pure grappling match, Vieira would win in a landslide. Of course, that is not the case, but Petroski lands just 2.77 significant strikes per minute and has not landed more than 23 in his last four fights. He simply does not win without his grappling.
Against other grappling-based fighters, Vieira is 3-1 in the UFC, with his only loss to No. 12-ranked contender Anthony Hernandez. His second loss in the UFC came against Chris Curtis, who stuffed all 20 of his takedown attempts. Not only does Petroski lack the same type of takedown defense, but he will be willing to go to the ground with Vieira. Petroski continues to insist he is the best grappler in the division, landing a takedown in seven of his nine UFC fights.
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The last time Vieira faced an opponent willing to grapple with him, he submitted Cody Brundage in the second round at UFC Vegas 72. Brundage had him severely compromised and pulled guard to attempt a guillotine choke, only to tap out to an arm triangle just minutes later. It was certainly a case of poor fight IQ, but Petroski appears to be approaching this matchup in a similar manner.
Why Andre Petroski Will Win
Whenever two grapplers face each other in the UFC, the fight tends to turn into a striking match. If that is the case, Petroski is the younger, faster, and more athletic fighter with a considerable power advantage. In such matchups, that can often be enough, as was the case when he beat Gerald Meerschaert at UFC 292.
As good of a grappler as Vieira is, he is not the best wrestler. The Brazilian has completed just 30 percent of his takedown attempts in the UFC. Against fighters with higher than a 60 percent takedown defense, he is just a combined 5-of-37 on his shots. Most of that includes his 0-for-20 goose egg against Curtis, but he also went just 1-for-7 against Brundage and 4-for-10 against Hernandez. Petroski's 80 percent takedown defense is one of the highest he will face.
Petroski's instinct might want him to grapple, but he has a clear striking advantage. Working with head coach John Marquez and teammate Joe Pyfer, Petroski's striking has gradually improved each outing. Each of Petroski's three career losses came by knockout, while Vieira has just one knockout win in his 12 professional fights.
Final Rodolfo Vieira-Andre Petroski Prediction & Pick
The lasting images most fans have of Petroski are not great. Before laying on his two most recent opponents to pick up uneventful wins, he ran head-first into Jacob Malkoun's hip to cause one of the weirdest fight endings in UFC history. Conversely, Vieira looked phenomenal in his last fight, handing Armen Petrosyan the first submission loss of his career.
Both scenarios simultaneously create a sell-high moment on Vieira and a buy-low opportunity on Petroski. Now 35, Vieira has notably slowed as decades of combat sports weigh on him. Since his last fight, Vieira experienced the birth of his son and endured wrist surgery, leading to a year-long layoff. He may have looked good against Petrosyan, but it was clear from the beginning that the former kickboxer had nothing for him on the ground.
If Petroski is not careful, Vieira can truly submit anybody. Yet, Petroski still has a sizeable strength, power and speed advantage with more tools on the feet to out-work a one-dimensional fighter. Neither man has great cardio, but Vieira has roughly seven good minutes in him before he falls off a cliff.
Final Rodolfo Vieira-Andre Petroski Prediction & Pick: Andre Petroski (+225), Over 1.5 Rounds (-195)
