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As one of the several European fighters competing at UFC Saudi Arabia, Said Nurmagomedov (18-3) returns to center stage to take on emerging contender Vinicius Oliveira (21-3). It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Nurmagomedov-Oliveira prediction and pick.
Nurmagomedov will be making his 10th walk to the Octagon. The former ranked contender has not fought in 15 months after having three fights canceled in 2024. He is coming off a first-round submission of Muin Gafurov at UFC 294 and has won five of his last six fights.
Despite having less UFC experience, Oliveira actually has more overall MMA experience. ‘Lok Dog' is making just his third appearance in the UFC but has already competed 24 times by the age of 29. Oliveira is coming off an impressive 2024, in which he dominated divisional veteran Ricky Simón three months after viciously knocking out Benardo Sopaj in his promotional debut.
Here are the UFC Saudi Arabia Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Saudi Arabia Odds: Said Nurmagomedov-Vinicius Oliveira Odds
Said Nurmagomedov: -162
Vinicius Oliveira: +136
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Said Nurmagomedov Will Win
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Nurmagomedov will be the best striker and overall fighter Oliveira has ever faced in his career. That could pose problems for a fighter in Oliveira who is used to carrying his hands low and running through most opponents he has ever matched up with. Nurmagomedov's size could also be an issue, as his tall frame matches that of Oliveira, who towered over each of his previous UFC opponents.
Contrary to what his name suggests, Nurmagomedov is one of the most diverse and creative strikers in the UFC bantamweight division. Nobody Oliveira has ever fought had anything close to Nurmagomedov's speed, precision and dexterity. Nurmagomedov can certainly wrestle and will be the more technical grappler of the two, but his distance management and speed will be a mountain of a challenge for Oliveira to overcome.
Oliveira has more than fallen in love with his power, picking up 76 percent of his career victories by knockout. That has been a double-edged sword at times, as he tends to overswing and put defense on the backburner with the belief in his power. In each of his three career losses, Oliveira got caught attempting to recklessly close distance and paid the price. Few bantamweights have been better at sniping reckless advancers than Nurmagomedov, who has never been knocked out in his 15-year career.
Why Vinicius Oliveira Will Win
Neither fighter tends to waste any time once the clock rolls, but Nurmagomedov will be the fighter lighter on his feet in the opening round. However, while he is never stagnant in round one and is an expert at creating angles, he is prone to getting backed against the fence. That lines up with Oliveira, who is never one to take a backstep. Working on cutting off the circle-outs of Nurmagomedov should have been the focus of his camp.
For Oliveira, energy management will be the key to his success. He loves to engage early and often, but against Nurmagomedov, patience will be his best friend. Nurmagomedov is a handful early but tends to fade at the midway point of every fight if it gets to that point. After that mark, he is much less dynamic and a lot easier to contain. Oliveira does not have the best cardio but does seem to have the better gas tank of the two.
If Oliveira can manage to stay within himself — a big if — he will gain momentum throughout the fight like a boulder rolling downhill. Once Nurmagomedov fatigues, he tends to wrestle, which often gets him into more trouble. Oliveira is not a great defensive wrestler or grappler but will have the strength advantage, which is more than enough to fend off a tired, sloppy Nurmagedov. The key will be surviving the early storm.
Final Said Nurmagomedov-Vinicius Oliveira Prediction & Pick
If there is one thing guaranteed in this fight, it is that Oliveira will come out with the same confident Muay Thai approach. It is the same style that made Carlos Prates a popular welterweight contender. However, unlike Prates, Oliveira relies on big, wild actions to get his finishes instead of technicality.
Fighters who keep their hands low, like Oliveira, typically rely on elite head movement and odd angles to get the job done. Oliveira presents a tough style to face, but so does Nurmagomedov. Oliveira's head movement is also not where it should be. His reach and athleticism have typically been enough to stay out of harm's way, but those advantages will not be at his disposal against Nurmagomedov.
It is hard to say which version of Nurmagomedov will emerge after a more than year-long layoff, but the time away seemed more due to unfortunate timing than anything else. While not likely, Oliveira can still catch Nurmagomedov with one of his wild hooks. It is just easier to see the faster and cleaner striker finding the mark on an opponent who relies more on athleticism than technical defense.
Final Said Nurmagomedov-Vinicius Oliveira Prediction & Pick: Said Nurmagomedov (-162), Under 2.5 rounds (+105)
