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Ranked thirteenth overall in the nation, Mark Few’s Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on Brian Dutchers San Diego State Aztecs. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a San Diego State-Gonzaga prediction and pick.
Coming off a trip to the national championship, Brian Dutcher has a new-look squad this year. Say goodbye to Nathan Mensah, Keshad Johnson, Matt Bradley, Adam Seiko, and Aquek Arop. Welcoming transfer, USC’s Reese Waters, the Aztecs have relied heavily on the core of returnees – Jaedon LeDee, Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish, and Darrion Trammell. Make no mistake, the gritty Dutcher culture remains rock solid.
Similarly, Mark Few’s Zag’s have a new look to them. No more Drew Timme, Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton, Malachi Smith, or Hunter Sallis. The returning duo of Anton Watson and Nolan Hickman have shouldered the load while transfers Ryan Nembhard (Creighton) and Graham Ike (Wyoming) have fit in nicely.
Both squads have had opportunities to beat top 30 teams yet both have failed to do so. This is a non-conference Super Bowl for both teams now – for this is the last opportunity before conference play to make a statement.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: San Diego State-Gonzaga Odds
San Diego State: +6.5 (-102)
Gonzaga: -6.5 (-120)
Over: 146.5 (-110)
Under: 146.5 (-110)
How to Watch San Diego State vs. Gonzaga
Time: 9:00 pm ET/ 6:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN2, ROOT
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why San Diego State Will Cover The Spread
On their run to the finals the Aztecs were able to utilize a quality, veteran, deep bench. Not so much this time around. San Diego State ranks 302nd nationally in bench minutes compared to 34th last year. You may be thinking, how is this helpful for the Aztecs? Well, I would not call it helpful but college basketball is all about matchups. While almost every opponent to date has held a bench advantage over the Aztecs, Gonzaga is not a team that will be able to do that. Believe it or not, the Bulldogs rank 341st in bench minutes. I predict neither team to have a bench advantage. This game will be eight-on-eight for a full 40 minutes – what you see is what you get.
While the defense has regressed, the offense has improved. Most of that improvement can be attributed to the breakout of Jaedon LeDee (21.6ppg). Significantly, LeDee has made a concerted effort to get to the free throw line ranking 24th nationally in fouls drawn. Also, 6-6 Reese Waters is 37/37 from the free throw line on the year – he does not miss. That matches up well against the Gonzaga front court of Graham Ike, Braden Huff, and Ben Gregg because they all average 5 or more fouls committed per 40 minutes. Just two games ago the Bulldogs sent UConn’s Donovan Clingan to the line seven times. In summary, I predict LeDee to get to the free-throw line often.
Lastly, when playing in hostile territory it is critical to take care of the basketball. Thanks to veterans Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell, the Aztecs rank 31st nationally in turnover rate. Not only do they not turn it over, but the Gonzaga defense will not pressure them much. The Bulldogs rank 241st in defensive turnover rate. Despite the tough test, if the Aztecs can stick to what they do best – take care of the ball and get to the line – they have a path to victory.
Why Gonzaga Will Cover The Spread
Initially, we must emphasize how important Nathan Mensah was to this defense. Mensah ranks first in Aztec program history in games started, second in blocked shots, and third in rebounds. He is only the second player in Aztec history to score 800 points, grab 700 rebounds, and block 200 shots. In summary, losing the back-to-back Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year hurts.
Significantly, the defensive data has caught up to San Diego State. When filtering BartTorvik’s analytics to represent teams with zero preseason priors baked in, the Aztec defense ranks 33rd nationally. For context, the Aztec defense finished 4th last year following their run to the championship. From now on I will refer to last year's defense as the bullies.
When breaking down the new San Diego State defense, two categories are much worse than the bullies. Those categories are block rate and assist rate. The bullies boasted a block rate of 11.7% (51st) and allowed an assist rate of 46.6% (77th). Contrarily, this year the block rate is 9.9% (143rd) allowing an assist rate of 49.8% (159th).
I bring up this defensive regression because it matches up perfectly with Gonzaga’s offense. In terms of point distribution, the Bulldogs get 58.5% of their points from inside the arc which ranks 25th nationally. This can be attributed to athletic forwards Graham Ike, Anton Watson, Braden Huff, and Ben Gregg who all boast offensive ratings above 120. For context, San Diego State only has one player with an offensive rating above 120. In summary, the Aztecs' defensive regression plays right into the strengths of the Bulldogs offense.
Final San Diego State-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick
The McCarthey Athletic Center is going to be absolutely bonkers for this one. This is the most anticipated home game for Gonzaga until February when they host Saint Mary’s. Combine the home-court advantage with San Diego State’s defensive regression and I really like the Bulldogs here.
Final San Diego State-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick: Gonzaga -6.5 (-120)
