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The Seattle Mariners hope to take the next step in 2025. The Emerald City shines as we continue our MLB odds series with a Seattle Mariners over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Mariners went 85-77 last season, missing the postseason. Unfortunately, a bad start doomed them and put the M's in a hole they could not climb out of. Some might figure that would cause some changes. Instead, the Mariners had a quiet offseason, and Austin Shenton was the only notable addition while they lost Justin Turner and Yimi Garcia to free agency. This is the same team as last season, with some tweaks. While there is time for the Mariners to make the perfect trade, it is more likely they come into this season with what they have.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 84.5 Wins: -110
Under 84.5 Wins: -110
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Why You Should Bet the Over
In 2024, the Mariners went 9-4 against the Athletics and 8-5 against the Houston Astros. They also went 4-2 against the Kansas City Royals and 5-1 against the Detroit Tigers. Ultimately, their rotation carried them through most of these successes, especially against the Astros.
The Mariners probably have the best pitching rotation in baseball. Amazingly, this rotation fields five starters who can be aces on almost any team. Logan Gilbert shined, going 14-8 with a 3.11 ERA while striking out 183 batters over 192 1/3 innings. He was durable and threw strikes. Overall, he was exceptional.
Luis Castillo is still a Mariner, despite the trade rumors. Last season, he went 11-12 with a 3.64 ERA and thrived with his cut fastball. George Kirby was good, with a record of 14-11 with a 3.53 ERA, and expects to take the next step. Likewise, Bryce Miller may utilize the splitter more. Bryan Woo has the best WHIP on the staff at 0.98. But his fastball is his favorite pitch.
Andres Munoz is the closer, and his slider has produced the most swing-and-misses of any pitch in baseball. Collin Snider is the first setup man and has a sweeper that targets hitters. Also, Gregory Santos has a slider and a 99 MPH sinker that is tough to hit.
The M's don't have a strong lineup. However, Julio Rodriguez has the potential to smack 30 home runs. He had a down season, by his standards. Cal Raleigh won the Platinum Glove and was the best defensive catcher in baseball. Randy Arozarena hopes to regain his form.
The Mariners will win 85 games if their starting rotation continues to dominate and their bullpen holds leads. Then, they need Rodriguez and Arozarena to drive the offense.
Why You Should Bet the Under
In 2024, the Mariners went 4-9 against the Texas Rangers and 5-8 against the Los Angeles Angels. They also went 3-4 against the New York Yankees, 2-4 against the Baltimore Orioles, and 3-3 against the Cleveland Guardians. While losing to the Rangers, Orioles, Guardians, and Yankees makes sense, there are no excuses for losing to the Angels.
Much of their struggles came from a bad lineup. Luke Raley simply could not hit lefties. Also, second baseman Ryan Bliss is fast, but he is untested in the majors. Shortstop J.P. Crawford had a broken finger last season. Meanwhile, third baseman Dylan Moore had a gold glove but struggled to hit. Designated hitter Mitch Haniger has seen his OPS decline over the last three seasons.
This offense simply cannot hit. Rodriguez is still an elite player with bounds of potential. Yet, his struggles last season raised many red flags. While their pitching staff is elite, the pressure to keep opponents to less than two runs grew on them last season, and the M's could not handle it. Additionally, the bullpen was not as good as it could have been. The Mariners need more balance to give themselves the best chance of winning games.
The Mariners will not win 85 games because their lineup cannot generate multiple run chances. Additionally, their bullpen is not good enough to protect leads, and it will lead to the starting pitchers overcompensating.
Final Mariners Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Mariners are still a solid team. Yet, there seems to be something missing. Rodriguez is still one of the best hitters in the game. But can he improve? Arozarena is 31 years old, and there might be more pressure for him to hit the ball. I think the only thing that gives me hope is their potential to get better because of their elite pitching. Yes, pitching wins championships. In this case, I think the Mariners ride their pitching to 85 wins.
Final Mariners Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 84.5 Wins (-110)
