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In his first fight with Matchroom Boxing, Shakur Stevenson (22-0) defends the WBC lightweight title against short-notice opponent Josh Padley (15-0). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Shakur Stevenson-Josh Padley prediction and pick.
Stevenson, 27, has been the lightweight champion since November 2023 when he won the vacant belt with a unanimous decision over Edwin de los Santos. Before moving up to 135 pounds, he previously held the WBO super featherweight titles from 2021 to 2022.
Padley, 29, has the record most want in a challenger but has obviously not faced anyone close to Stevenson's level. The short-notice replacement last beat Mark Chamberlain in September 2024 with a one-sided unanimous decision.
Here are the Shakur Stevenson-Josh Padley odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Shakur Stevenson-Josh Padley Odds
Shakur Stevenson: -4500
Josh Padley: +1600
Over 7.5 Rounds: -150
Under 7.5 Rounds: +118
How to Watch Shakur Stevenson vs. Josh Padley
Time: 11 a.m. ET / 8 a.m. PT
Co-main event ring walk time (estimated): 3:45 p.m. ET / 12:45 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN pay-per-view
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Shakur Stevenson Will Win
Since moving up to lightweight, Stevenson has just one knockout win in three fights but maintained the speed advantage he has exploited his entire career. With the late change in opponent, nothing much should change in Stevenson's approach given the quick turnaround time.
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Stevenson gets a lot of criticism for his lack of finishes but that takes nothing away from his elite defensive mechanics. Entering this matchup, he owns the highest plus-minus punch differential of any weight class, per Compubox. That number is largely based on the fact he allows opponents to land just 5.3 punches per round. No fighter in the world is as defensively responsible as Stevenson is, let alone anyone on Padley's record.
Stevenson was already heavily favored to beat Floyd Schofield and now has a monstrous edge over Padley. He has a strong argument as the best lightweight in the world, skill for skill. Nobody has even come close to making him sweat in the ring, and half a week is hardly enough time for Padley to be the first.
Why Josh Padley Will Win
Padley enters this fight in a position where he truly has nothing to lose. He is already an aggressive fighter by nature but will have the opportunity to fully throw caution to the wind with nothing to lose on three days' notice.
Despite winning just four of his 15 fights by knockout, Padley has the power to keep Stevenson weary. The Englishman has Padley has seven knockdowns in his last seven fights with all four of his knockout wins coming in the last three years. He seemed to find his timing and power down in that time.
If Padley sits back and is content to point-fight with Stevenson, he will lose that battle every time. Stevenson has done that dance thousands of times in his career, and Padley has nothing in his game that will give him any issues. He has to push the pace and force the champion to brawl with him, even if it opens himself up to the first knockout loss of his career. Stevenson is far from a one-punch knockout artist. If Padley can make it dirty, the fight could get more interesting than most predict.
Final Shakur Stevenson-Josh Padley Prediction & Pick
This fight is a true bummer for Stevenson, who appeared primed for a true showcase performance against Schofield. The clip of him predicting Schofield's withdrawal went viral shortly after the announcement, leading to Padley getting the short-notice shot. Padley might have been an interesting contender with the right opportunity, but in this situation, he is taking a 10-hour flight from Yorkshire to Riyadh with less than a week to prepare.
With the short-notice element, the knockout prop is juiced beyond reason. Stevenson's preparation seemed optimal all week, but he still has just one stoppage in his last four fights. The adrenaline dump from Schofield's withdrawal could also affect him, especially with the back-and-forth pre-fight chatter the two engaged in.
Short-notice fights tend to go longer, and Stevenson is a fighter who excels in his preparation. Padley's cardio may fall apart in the later rounds, but otherwise, expect a classic Stevenson masterclass that ventures into deep waters. If Stevenson gets a finish, expect it to come late. He has not ended a fight before the sixth round since 2019.
Final Shakur Stevenson-Josh Padley Prediction & Pick: Shakur Stevenson by Decision (+185), Over 7.5 rounds (-150)
