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The time has come and we're ready to bring you a betting prediction and pick for the Co-Main Event of UFC 310 in the Welterweight (170) Division. No. 3-ranked Shavkat Rakhmonov of Kazakhstan will take on No. 7 Ian Machado Garry of Ireland to determine a potential title challenger for the Welterweight Championship. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rakhmonov-Garry prediction and pick.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0) has gone a perfect 6-0 in the UFC since 2020. After taking down Geoff Neal in a classic fight, Rakhmonov made quick work of Wonderboy Thompson with a submission win. Originally slated to fight Belal Muhammad for the Welterweight belt, Rakhmonov will now pivot to facing Garry to cement his title shot. He stands 6'1″ with a 77-inch reach.
Ian Machado Garry (15-0) has also remained perfect in the UFC with an 8-0n record since 2021. After also beating Geoff Neal in a close decision, he most recently put together a masterful performance over Michael Venom Page at UFC 303. If he can beat Rakhmonov, he'll likely earn the next title shot against Muhammad. Garry stands 6'3″ with a 74.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 310 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 310 Odds: Shavkat Rakhmonov-Ian Machado Garry Odds
Shavkat Rakhmonov: -375
Ian Machado Garry: +295
Over 2.5 rounds: -166
Under 2.5 rounds: +130
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Why Shavkat Rakhmonov Will Win
Shavkat Rakhmonov was preparing to fight for the Welterweight title, but champion Belal Muhammad was forced out of the bout due to a nasty foot injury. While Rakhmonov is the worthy contender and next-in-line for a title shot, him taking this fight speaks volumes of his confidence and fearlessness to stand across from anyone. While Ian Garry is a dangerous opponent, Shavkat Rakhmonov has proven many times that he's willing to go most places other fighters won't.
Crazy Shavkat stat pic.twitter.com/3Ck5gVWhGC
— Dovy🔌 (@DovySimuMMA) December 2, 2024
Rakhmonov has also trained with Ian Machado Garry in the past, so he should know what to expect in terms of his grappling and striking. Garry has admitted that Shavkat has gotten the best of him in the grappling before, so expect Rakhmonov to exploit the gaps and work where he's most comfortable. He's well-rounded in all areas and is likely to surprise people once again with his striking.
Why Ian Machado Garry Will Win
Ian Machado Garry is extremely focused ahead of this fight knowing he stands a chance to become the next contender at Welterweight. Garry knows he is likely to be outmatched by the grappling of Rakhmonov, but he's fully confident in his ability in the striking to put him away. Garry is extremely dangerous with his punches and kicks while remaining in constant motion and staying light on his feet. His activity will be crucial during this bout as he tries to work around Rakhmonov.
Ian Garry admits he was choked out by Shavkat Rakhmonov during training:
“If he’s hanging on to something like that… do it on Saturday night…
I’m gonna put a hole in his head on Saturday.” 😳
🎥 @talkSPORT #UFC310pic.twitter.com/KmrANWtHL1
— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) December 4, 2024
Ian Machado Garry won't waste any time in trying to gauge the striking distance and timing of his opponent. He remains right in your face and rattles off combinations in blistering succession. He's also very active with his kicks and will throw them quickly from close-range. His confidence is his biggest strength and if he's able to run through Rakhmonov as he's done with previous opponents, he should be able to edge a decision win in this one.
Final Shavkat Rakhmonov-Ian Machado Garry Prediction & Pick
This should be one of the best matchups of the night as both men are undefeated heading into this fight. Both men also have a history of training together, so they should have a solid understanding of what the other is capable of. While we give the clear grappling advantage to Rakhmonov, the striking advantage has to go to Ian Garry and his versatility. Still, neither fighter should underestimate their opponent as both men are extremely well-rounded in all areas.
This fight will likely hinge on whichever fighter can better keep their composure during the chaos of some of these exchanges we're expecting to see. There should be a solid mix of techniques and level changes throughout this one, so it'll be interesting to see how Rakhmonov fares on the feet against Garry, and how Garry will look when he's inevitably taken down and put on his back.
For our final prediction, we have to side with Shavkat Rakhmonov to get the win in this one. His advantage in the reach should be enough to keep him safe from Garry's striking, while his world-class wrestling should earn him control time and a decision victory here.
Final Shavkat Rakhmonov-Ian Machado Garry Prediction & Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov (-375); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-166)
