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It is an ACC battle as SMU visits Louisville. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an SMU-Louisville prediction and pick.
SMU enters the game sitting at 4-1 on the year. They opened with a closer-than-expected game at Nevada, winning 29-24. They would then beat Houston Christian before facing BYU. SMU would hold a two-point lead at the half, and have the game tied in the fourth quarter. Still, BYU would hit a field goal with 1:58 left in the game to give them the 18-15 win. Since that game, they have beaten TCU 66-42, and Florida State 42-16.
Meanwhile, Louisville is 3-1 on the year. They opened with wins over Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, and Georgia Tech before facing Notre Dame last week. Louisville was down 21-7 in the first quarter but would keep fighting back. They made it a seven points game three times, but would not complete the comeback, losing 31-24.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: SMU-Louisville Odds
SMU: +6.5 (-104)
Moneyline: +195
Louisville: -6.5 (-118)
Moneyline: -240
Over: 56.5 (-110)
Under: 56.5 (-110)
How to Watch SMU vs. Louisville
Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00 AM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
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Why SMU Could Cover The Spread/Win
SMU has moved from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings at quarterback. He has completed 59 of 93 passes this year, good for 733 yards. Jennings also has six touchdown passes to just one interception while being sacked three times this year. He has also run well, running for 149 yards on 34 attempts and a touchdown.
His top target this year has been tight end RJ Maryland. Maryland has 16 receptions this year for 221 yards and three touchdowns. Jake Bailey has also been solid, with 11 receptions for 170 yards and a score. Further, Jordan Hudson has just eight receptions, but for 112 yards and three touchdowns. In the backfield, Brashard Smith has led the way. He has 70 carries this year for 509 yards. He has scored seven times on the ground. Further, Smith has 11 receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown.
SMU is 64th in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting 49th in opponent yards per game. They are 18th against the rush but 89th against the pass. Kobe Wilson has led the way. He is tied for the team lead with 31 tackles, while he has forced a fumble, and has two interceptions. He returned one of them for a touchdown. Meanwhile, Ahmaas Moses has a pass breakup and three interceptions, plus a touchdown, this year. Further, Isaiah Smith has had 2.5 sacks this year.
Why Louisville Could Cover The Spread/Win
Tyler Shough has led the Louisville offense this year. He has completed 76 of 117 passes on the year with 11 touchdown passes. Further, he has been intercepted just once, while being sacked just four times on the year. His top target has been Ja'Corey Brooks. Brooks has 22 receptions for 368 yards and four scores. Meanwhile, Chris Bell has nine receptions for 188 yards and two scores. Further, Jadon Thompson has six receptions for 88 yards and two scores.
In the backfield, Isaac Brown leads the way. He has run 29 times this year, but averaged over eight yards per carry, coming away with 245 yards. He has scored once. Further, Keyjuan Brown has 24 carries for 149 yards and two scored. Finally, Duke Watson has run 13 times for 144 yards and two scores as well.
Louisville is 36th in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 33rd in opponent yards per game. They are 37th against the rush, but sit 59th against the pass. Tamarion McDonald, Tramel Logan, and Jared Dawson have all been getting into the backfield well. McDonald and Dawson have two sacks, while Loga has three. Overall, Louisville has ten sacks on the year, while also having four takeaways. McDonald has two of them, coming away with two fumble recoveries on the year. Further, Ramon Puryear, another defensive lineman, has two fumble recoveries as well.
Final SMU-Louisville Prediction & Pick
The Louisville offense has been based on the run game this year. While Tyler Shough has been solid passing, the run game is the primary form of offense for Louisville, and now they are facing a strong SMU defense. Further, SMU has been better on offense with the quarterback change. They will be able to move the ball through the air in this one, the weak spot of the Louisville defense. While SMU should keep this one close, the best play in this one is on the total. Take the under here.
Final SMU-Louisville Prediction & Pick: Under 56.5 (-110)
