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Troy looks for another Sun Belt win as they host South Alabama. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a South Alabama-Troy prediction, pick, and how to watch
South Alabama enters the game at 4-4 on the season. They opened with a loss to Tulane, before beating SE Louisiana and Oklahoma State. South Alabama would then be upset by Central Michigan. In the conference opener, they would lose to James Madison 31-23, but rebound with two huge performances. They beat UL Monroe 55-7 and then Southern Miss 55-3. The last time out did not go well though. Against Louisiana, they were down 17-0 at the half and would fall 33-20.
Troy enters the game on a five-game winning streak. They won the opening game against Stephen F. Austin, before losing to Kansas State. Then, they opened conference play with James Madison. It was a tight game, with Troy scoring in the fourth quarter to make it a two-point game, but they would lose 16-14. Since then, they have been on a five-game winning streak. It started with a three-point win over Western Kentucky before conference wins over Georgia State and Arkansas State. Troy then shut out Army, and last time out dominated Texas State with a 31-13 win.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: South Alabama-Troy Odds
South Alabama: +5.5 (-110)
Troy: -5.5 (-110)
Over: 45.5 (-110)
Under: 45.5 (-110)
How to Watch South Alabama vs. Troy Week 10
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why South Alabama Will Cover The Spread
Carter Bradley has been solid for South Alabama. He has completed 167 of 256 passes this year for 2,152 yards and 13 touchdowns. Bradley has two or more passing touchdowns in five of his last six games. Last time out, he threw two touchdowns and 381 yards, but he also threw two interceptions. On the season, he has 12 turnover-worthy passes, but five of them came last time out. One of the issues was pressure, as he was sacked five times in the game and pressured 16. The only other game he has faced that much pressure was against James Madison, and he struggled in that game as well.
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In the run game, La'Damian Webb has run for 674 yards this year with 13 touchdowns this season. He has been getting solid blocking with two yards before the first contact this year. Further, he has been great after contact this year. Webb has 429 yards after contact this year. He has also forced 41 missed tackles on the season. Joining him in the backfield is Kentrel Bullock. Bullock has run for 375 yards this year, while also going for over five yards per carry. Further, he has scored three times this year.
Caullin Lacy has been amazing at receiving this year for South Alabama. He has brought in 55 of 76 targets this year for 952 yards and six touchdowns this season. He has been over 100 yards every game except for the first one against Tulane. Lacy has not scored in the last two games. Still, he has been amazing after the catch this year. Lacy has brought in 635 yards after the catch this season.
South Alabama is 41st in the nation in total defense and has been solid all around this year. They allowed just 21.1 points per game on defense this year while giving up just 125.4 yards on the ground this year. They are even better against the pass, sitting 20th in the nation against the pass. Jamie Sheriff and Brock Higdon both have three sacks this year and South Alabama has 21 sacks this year. In run defense, it is all about Quentin Wilfawn and James Miller. Both of them have over 20 stops for offensive failures while averaging a depth of tackle 2.1 yards beyond the line of scrimmage or closer. In coverage, they have allowed just 1,524 yards this year, led by Jaden Voisin. He has allowed just 100 yards while breaking up five passes and having two interceptions.
Why Troy Will Cover The Spread
For Troy, it starts with Kimani Vidal, who has been solid this year in the running game. He has 994 yards on the ground with six touchdowns. Vidal has been great after contact this season, with 584 yards after first contact this season. He did struggle last game though, with just 40 yards in the game and without a score. Vidal still has four games over 100 yards this year, with two of them over 200 yards on the season.
At quarterback, Gunnar Watson leads the charge. He has completed 150 of 249 passes this year for 2,136 yards and 14 touchdowns. He is coming off a great game in which completed over 65 percent of his passes for 392 yards and three scored. In the last four games, he has passed for over 200 yards in each of them, with six touchdowns, and just one interception.
The Troy defense is also great. They are 14th in total yards against this year while ranking 39th in points against per game. It starts in the passing game, which ranks 28th in the nation in passing yards allowed. Good coverage starts with a good pass rush. Javon Solomon has six sacks this year with 22 quarterback pressures. Meanwhile, Richard Jibnour has four sacks on 29 pressures this year with two quarterback hits this season. Reddy Stewart leads the team in coverage this year. While he has allowed 241 yards this year and a touchdown, he also has three interceptions and three pass breakups this year. Troy has allowed just six touchdowns through the air while picking off seven passes.
In the run game, Troy is 20th in the nation against the run. Jayden McDonald has 37 tackles in the run game with 22 stops for offensive failures. Meanwhile, Jordan Stringer has 16 stops for offensive failures in the run game with an average depth of tackle just 1.9 yards down the field.
Final South Alabama-Troy Prediction & Pick
Troy has been playing well as of late. They have been playing well on offense, showing they can throw the ball well, and run the ball well. They are scoring well too. Troy has scored 27 or more points in four of the last five games, with the only one being their 19-0 win over Army. Meanwhile, Troy has given up just 23 points in the last four games. South Alabama is solid on offense, but they will not be good enough to overcome the Troy defense. Take Troy in this one.
Final South Alabama-Troy Prediction & Pick: Troy -5.5 (-110)
