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St. John's is playing like the best team in the Big East, while UConn has had more of a bumpy road this season despite playing better recently. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a St. John's-UConn prediction and pick.
St. John's is 20-3 this season and has won nine straight games. They have quality wins against New Mexico, Kansas State, Providence, Xavier twice, Villanova, Georgetown twice, and Marquette. Their losses have been to Baylor, Georgia, and Creighton. RJ Luis Jr. is the best player for a balanced offense, and the Red Storm need him to be Superman against the defending champs.
UConn has had a more bumpy season than expected, but it is still 16-6 and has won three of its last four games. It has several quality wins against Baylor, Texas, Gonzaga, Xavier, Georgetown, and Marquette. However, it has also suffered significant losses to Memphis, Dayton, Villanova, and Creighton. Solo Ball has also emerged as a playmaker, just like Alex Karaban. They badly need this win.
Here are the St. John's-UConn College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: St. John's-UConn Odds
St. John's: +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +104
UConn: -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -125
Over: 141.5 (-110)
Under: 141.5 (-110)
How to Watch St. John's vs. UConn
Time: 8:00 pm ET/5:00 pm PT
TV: FOX
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why St. John's Will Cover The Spread/Win
St. John's offense has been solid, and the key is their balance. The team scores 78.9 points per game, makes 45.2% of its field goals, and makes 29.6% of its three-pointers. They have the 73rd-ranked offensive rating on KenPom, at 112.9.
Four Red Storm players are averaging over double digits this season, showing the balance of the offense. RJ Luis Jr. is the scoring leader, averaging 17.4 points per game. The Red Storm are also great at moving the ball, averaging 15.5 assists per game, and Kadary Richmond is the team leader in assists, averaging 4.9 per game.
This offense excels thanks to its quick pace and balance across the roster. Luis Jr., Richmond, and Zuby Ejiofor make this offense go. Rick Pitino has this offense humming this year, and they should find success against a UConn defense that has taken a step back this season.
St. John's defense has been even better than its offense. The Red Storm allow 65.1 points per game, 39.4% from the field, and 33.7% from behind the arc. In KenPom, they have the fourth-ranked defensive rating at 88.4. They are dominant off the glass, averaging 41.5 rebounds per game, 10th in the country. Ejiofor has emerged as the best player in the frontcourt and leads the team in rebounds and blocks with 8.3 and 1.7 per game, respectively.
Regarding on-ball defense, they have been stifling. Five Red Storm players are averaging at least one steal, and Richmond is the steals leader with two per game. St. John's has the depth and athletes to challenge UConn. The Huskies have the best offense in the Big East, but this defense is excellent, and I think they can at least slow them down, even on the road.
Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win
UConn's offense has been a juggernaut this season. They score 79.9 points per game, have a 49.4% field goal percentage, and a 37% three-point shooting percentage. This offense is also 10th in KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency, with a 122.9 rating. Three different Huskies are averaging double digits in scoring for a balanced offense. Ball and Karaban are tied for the team lead, scoring 15 points per game.
This offense is one of the best in the country when it comes to ball movement. They average 19 assists per game, which is sixth in the country. Hassan Diarra is the assists leader, averaging 6.4 per game. This offense has adjusted well, even with Liam McNeeley injured. The Red Storm have the best defense in the Big East, but I still trust the Huskies to get points in this matchup.
UConn's defense has only been in the middle of the pack this season of the Big East. They allow 68.6 points per game, 42.6% from the field, and 36.8% from behind the arc.
The Huskies' defense is disappointing, ranked 121st in KenPom with a 103.9 rating. However, the frontcourt has stayed consistent and is a strength. Tarris Reed Jr. has been dominant down low and is the rebounding leader, with 6.8 per game. Karaban is the block leader, averaging 1.8 per game.
UConn's on-ball defense has not been as good as its frontcourt defense. Hassan Diarra is the steals leader, averaging 1.5 per game, but the rest of the roster has not been up to par on this side of the defense. UConn has pieces on defense, but its best hope is to turn this game into a track meet.
Final St. John's-UConn Prediction & Pick
This is a battle of offense and defense between the Red Storm and the Huskies. With the matchup at home, I like UConn in this game. It hurts the Huskies that McNeeley is unavailable, but I still trust Hurley and Karaban at home. UConn wins and covers in this game.
Final St. John's-UConn Prediction & Pick: UConn -1.5 (-110)
