The UFC Shanghai: Walker vs. Zhang Main Card is finally here as we're set with a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Welterweight (170) Division on Saturday. China's Taiyilake Nueraji makes his UFC debut against Ireland's Kiefer Crosbie in an exciting matchup to open the card. Check out the UFC odds for our Nueraji-Crosbie prediction and pick.
Taiyilake Nueraji (11-1) will make his UFC debut on Saturday as the No. 4-ranked Welterweight in all of the Asia-Pacific region. He comes into this bout riding a five-fight winning streak that includes five finishes, looking to finally cash in on his UFC opportunity in front of a home crowd. Nueraji stands 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach.
Kiefer Crosbie (10-5) is still searching for his first UFC win with a 0-2 record since 2023. He fought to a 4-3 record in three years under Bellator and has even taken part in exhibition boxing matches. He looks for the elusive first UFC win as a sizable betting underdog here. Crosbie stands 5-foot-11 with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Shanghai odds: Taiyilake Nueraji-Kiefer Crosbie odds
Taiyilake Nueraji: -455
Kiefer Crosbie: +350
Over 1.5 rounds: +150
Under 1.5 rounds: -195
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Why Taiyilake Nueraji will win
- Last Fight: (W) Kirill Karpekin – TKO (hooks, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Taiyilake will make his UFC debut on Saturday while riding an extremely hot streak of wins. He's been on the UFC's radar for some time following his appearance on “Road to UFC,” but his added experience on the regional level has only added to his skill set ahead of this debut. He's had three fights cancelled, two due to his own injuries, in the lead-up to this fight, so it'll be interesting to see if he shows up ready come Saturday.
Despite his issues in arriving to this point, Nueraji is a ready prospect with all the tools necessary to be successful in the UFC. At 6-foot-2, he's much longer than his height indicates thanks to his extremely long legs and arms. He uses his limbs to lunge forward at opponents and quickly cut the distance between them in the striking. Against a shorter opponent like Crosbie, Nueraji should have all the opportunities to showcase his striking capabilities.
In addition to being a hard hitter, Nueraji is also very unorthodox and puts his own defense at risk when lunging at his opponents. His chin has only failed him once in the past, but he's managed to notch a finish in each of his 11 career wins. Watch for Nueraji to put together another exciting performance in this one.
Why Kiefer Crosbie will win
- Last Fight: (L) Sam Patterson – SUB (arm triangle, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Kiefer Crosbie makes another appearance following a tough submission loss where he got tangled against a much longer opponent in Sam Patterson. That's now his second straight loss by submission in as many UFC fights, so he'll need to make some stern improvements in his grappling defense. His opponent here, however, will be welcoming a brawl on the feet, giving Crosbie a much better chance to shine where he's more comfortable.
In addition to his work on the feet, Crosbie participates in competitive boxing on the side and has been working on that aspect of his MMA game for quite some time. He'll need every bit of skill as he'll try to enter range against a longer fighter and hopefully work from inside the pocket. From there, Crosbie has a much better chance at countering and catching Nueraji with something on the inside.
Ultimately, Crosbie will be at a physical disadvantage during this fight. However, he's already past the jitters of a UFC debut, which his opponent will be dealing with throughout this fight. If Crosbie can keep his composure, close the distance, and counter with his boxing, he could stand a chance at the big upset.
Final Taiyilake Nueraji-Kiefer Crosbie prediction & pick
This will be a great fight to open the main card as the Chinese crowd awaits the debut of one of their own in Taiyilake Nueraji. His length in the striking and ability to knock opponents out is what makes him the sizable betting favorite here, but we can't overlook the experience and improved boxing from Kiefer Crosbie.
While Crosbie has been improving, he still boasts five losses on his record against lesser competition. Taiyilake Nueraji has been much more consistent in his results as well as remaining consistent when it comes to finishing the fight.
For our final prediction here, we have to roll with Taiyilake Nueraji to win the bout with another knockout. I expect this one to come late in the first round as Nueraji eventually figures out the timing and lunges forward to end the fight.
Final Taiyilake Nueraji-Kiefer Crosbie Prediction & Pick: Taiyilake Nueraji (-455); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-195)
