Perennial light heavyweight title contender Aleksandar Rakic (14-5) looks to snap his three-fight skid at UFC 321 against Azamat Murzakanov (15-0). It is time to continue our UFC odds series with an Aleksandar Rakic-Azamat Murzakanov prediction and pick.
Rakic, 33, is ending a year-long layoff after dropping a unanimous decision to eventual champion Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 308. The loss was his third consecutive and fourth in his last six fights. Rakic has not won a fight since March 2021, as a torn ACL and two ensuing losses have set his title aspirations back.
Murzakanov, 36, is one of the few rising contenders in the light heavyweight division. The undefeated knockout artist enters the most high-profile matchup of his career with a 5-0 UFC record since earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series in 2021. The Russian is coming off a first-round knockout of Brendson Ribeiro at UFC 316 in June.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 Odds: Aleksandar Rakic-Azamat Murzakanov Odds
Aleksandar Rakic: -105
Azamat Murzakanov: -115
Over 2.5 rounds: -120
Under 2.5 rounds: -110
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Aleksandar Rakic Will Win
Rakic is riding a three-fight skid, but each of his recent losses has come against former or eventual champions. All three fighters — Ankalaev, Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz — would also go on to fight for the title in their next outing. Murzakanov is undefeated, but he would still be the worst loss of Rakic's career if his undefeated record remained intact at UFC 321.
Murzakanov has run roughshod through the unranked light heavyweights in the UFC, but that does not say much at this point. The 205-pound division is notoriously top-heavy, allowing ‘The Professional' to blow through subpar competition with virtually one punch each time out. Three losses to elite competition have convinced fans to forget how much of a specimen Rakic was once viewed as.
Rakic possesses a rare blend of size, speed and athleticism that Murzakanov has yet to see. Murzakanov has power, but he is vastly undersized for the division. Rakic will own a whopping six-inch height and five-inch reach advantage in the Octagon.
Why Azamat Murzakanov Will Win
He might not look like it, but Murzakanov is arguably the most dangerous light heavyweight on the planet. Despite his smaller stature, few fighters have as much one-punch power as Murzakanov, who has one knockdown in each of his first six UFC fights.
Rakic will dwarf Murzakanov in the cage, but the latter is coming off a victory over a similarly sized opponent. Rakic is levels above Brendson Ribeiro, but Murzakanov systematically broke down the 6-foot-3 Brazilian en route to another first-round finish. Despite fighting with a 10-inch reach disadvantage, the Russian out-landed Ribeiro 27-8, holding ‘The Gorilla' to his fewest significant strike total to that point.
Murzakanov has not had to wrestle much in his UFC career, but he also has that in his back pocket. Murzakanov is a Master of Sport in ARB, a Russian martial art similar to Combat Sambo. He has just over three minutes of top control time in the UFC, during which he has racked up 46 significant ground strikes.
Final Aleksandar Rakic-Azamat Murzakanov Prediction & Pick
Murzakanov has looked like a potential dark horse title challenger, but this could be the fight that ends his undefeated run. He has yet to fail to win impressively, but his best win, six fights into his UFC career, is against Alonzo Menifield, who is a far cry from Aleksandar Rakic.
Murzakanov's right hand can put anyone down, but his size could finally work against him against the 6-foot-4 Rakic. ‘Rocket' has size, but he is an even more impressive athlete, which is a rare combination in the 205-pound division.
Rakic's defensive striking also gets overlooked, as he absorbs just 2.91 significant strikes per minute while facing the cream of the crop at light heavyweight. Murzakanov needs just one to change the fight, but Rakic's combination of size and defensive responsibility will be a lot to overcome.
Murzakanov has yet to face anyone as technical as Rakic, and he has already shown signs of struggle in the few moments he did not face an opponent willing to brawl. Rakic is as clean, technical and well-rounded as they come in this division.
After three straight losses, Rakic's back is against the wall at UFC 321. But all three of his recent losses came against champions, and none of them had an easy night against him. This is a buy-low spot on Rakic against a fighter who might have already reached his peak.
Final Aleksandar Rakic-Azamat Murzakanov Prediction & Pick: Aleksandar Rakic (-105), Over 2.5 rounds (-120)
