The time has finally come for the UFC 321 Co-Main Event as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this Women's Strawweight (115) championship bout. Fellow Brazilians meet as No. 1 contender Virna Jandiroba takes on No. 5-ranked Mackenzie Dern. Check our UFC odds series for the Dern-Jandiroba prediction and pick.
Mackenzie Dern (15-5) has gone 10-5 since joining the UFC back in 2018. With back-to-back wins, including a recent performance bonus over Amanda Ribas, Dern steps into her first title opportunity after facing some of the best fighter in the division. She comes in as the betting favorite over the experienced veteran. Dern stands 5-foot-4 with a 63-inch reach.
Virna Jandiroba (22-3) has gone 8-3 inside the UFC since 2019. After spending some time near the bottom, she's won five consecutive fights in dominant fashion en route to her No. 1 ranking. Now, she'll have a chance to fight for the title for the first time with her ultimate goal within reach. Jandiroba stands 5-foot-3 with a 64-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 Odds: Mackenzie Dern-Virna Jandiroba Odds
Mackenzie Dern: -155
Virna Jandiroba: +130
Over 4.5 rounds: -125
Under 4.5 rounds: -105
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Why Mackenzie Dern Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Amanda Ribas – SUB (armbar , R3)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 SUB
Mackenzie Dern has finally exacted her title shot following a ‘Performance of the Night' submission over a surging Amanda Ribas. It marked Dern's fifth UFC win by submission as she's one of the best female jiu jitsu practitioners to ever grace the UFC octagon. Even more impressive, her striking has improved greatly and she's shown a fearless attitude when exchanges strikes with her recent opponents.
Still, Mackenzie Dern will have her world-class grappling to fall back on during this fight as her opponent loves to find offense from there as well. Jandiroba usually finds her success by keeping opponents underneath her on the ground, but Dern will be a serious threat to throw submission attempts from there while looking to reverse positions.
To be successful here, Mackenzie Dern will have to come in with a tested game plan, knowing when she should take the fight to the ground. She'll be the faster opponent on her feet and could pose an issue for Jandiroba in the striking. Still, her opponent has a solid chin, so her clearest path to the belt will be winning this fight via submission.
Why Virna Jandiroba Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Yan Xiaonan – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 14 SUB
No one is more deserving of this vacant title shot than Virna Jandiroba thanks to her last five wins. She earned a performance bonus with a submission against Amanda Lemos and notched four of those wins by unanimous decision, so she's certainly hitting a rhythm with her fighting style that's resulted in wins. While this may not be her toughest opponent to-date, it's certainly the best grappler she's had to face in her career.
Virna Jandiroba's dominant success comes from her taking opponents down, finding top position, and nagging them with constant strikes on the ground. She's lethal when searching for a mounted crucifix position and if she's able to negate Dern's submission offense, she should take away her opponent's biggest strength in this one.
However, Jandiroba will have to be equally diligent in defending the takedowns and submission attempts. With 14 submissions under her belt, she has yet to be submitted in her career and already poses a huge threat on the ground to Dern.
Final Mackenzie Dern-Virna Jandiroba Prediction & Pick
This Strawweight title fight is set to feature two of the best grapplers in Women's MMA who have both earned their shot for the belt. Between them, the two fighters share 22 total submission wins with no submission losses on either record. However, given their fighting styles, we can almost guarantee that this fight will hit the mat at some point.
Mackenzie Dern is far more aggressive in chasing submissions as opposed to Jandiroba, who uses her grappling to control opponents and negate their offense. On the feet, I see Mackenzie Dern being the more active side with her fearless striking, so it could be Jandiroba forcing the grappling exchanges if things get hot on the feet.
On the ground, we have to like Mackenzie Dern's ability to find submissions from bad positions, which Jandiroba is likel yto put her in during this one. Nevertheless, we like her chances to be the more explosive side finding her way out of Jandiroba's smothering style.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with Mackenzie Dern to win this fight by submission. She hasn't had too many willing grapplers stand across from her and when opponents do chose to grapple with her, it's usually a bad decision. Let's take Dern to win this fight via submission and become the newest Women's Strawweight Champion.
Final Mackenzie Dern-Virna Jandiroba Prediction & Pick: Mackenzie Dern (-155)
