UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane continues on the main card with a fight between Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Nurmagomedov-Bautista prediction and pick.
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1) enters UFC 321 determined to rebound from his first career loss to Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311 earlier this year. With renewed focus and championship ambitions, Nurmagomedov looks to return to title contention as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mario Bautista.
Mario Bautista (16-2) enters UFC 321 on an eight-fight win streak that includes a recent unanimous decision victory over former Bellator champion Patchy Mix at UFC 316. Riding career-best form and elite confidence, Bautista looks to stretch his streak to nine straight as he comes into his fight this weekend against Umar Nurmagomedov.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 odds: Umar Nurmagomedov-Mario Bautista odds
Umar Nurmagomedov: -625
Mario Bautista: +455
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
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Why Umar Nurmagomedov will win
- Last Fight: (L) Merab Dvalishvili – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (2 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Umar Nurmagomedov enters UFC 321 primed to remind the bantamweight division why he’s an elite contender. Following his first professional loss, Umar’s preparation under Khabib Nurmagomedov has sharpened his striking volume and wrestling transitions, making him even more well-rounded than before.
The Dagestani standout’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place separates him from most of his peers. Against an aggressive counter-puncher like Mario Bautista, Umar’s distance management and chain wrestling will prevent extended exchanges where Bautista thrives, forcing the fight into grappling-heavy sequences.
Once in control, Umar’s top pressure and positional dominance turn into a suffocating pace that drains opponents physically and mentally. His five-round experience and composure under duress give him the edge in both tempo and fight IQ over an opponent still climbing the elite ladder.
Expect Nurmagomedov to control pace from the opening minute, blending feints and level changes to neutralize Bautista’s rhythm. By the second or third round, his relentless clinch work and seamless transitions should secure takedowns and accumulate control time. Over fifteen minutes, Umar’s superiority in grappling precision and endurance should earn him a clear unanimous decision victory at UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi.
Why Mario Bautista will win
- Last Fight: (W) Patchy Mix – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 9 (3 KO/TKO/6 SUB)
Mario Bautista has the activity, pace, and technical depth to pull off the upset over Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 321. Riding an eight-fight win streak, Bautista’s polished striking and well-rounded grappling make him uniquely equipped to disrupt Umar’s trademark rhythm and control-based approach.
Bautista’s key lies in volume and relentless pressure. Averaging over six significant strikes landed per minute, he overwhelms opponents by feinting them into mistakes and punishing telegraphed entries. Against a patient counter-grappler like Umar, this tempo can compromise balance and neutralize level changes before they develop.
Unlike many of Nurmagomedov’s previous opponents, Bautista also thrives in scrambles. His 68% takedown defense and ability to immediately reestablish range after clinches make him far less vulnerable to the Dagestani’s top control-heavy game. If he forces consistent stand-up exchanges, his cleaner boxing and longer reach could decisively swing the momentum.
Bautista’s composure under high-stakes moments and conditioning over three rounds could prove critical in Abu Dhabi’s larger cage. Expect him to use body work and calf kicks early to slow Umar’s movement, before turning up the pace late. With disciplined striking volume and intelligent defensive wrestling, Bautista has a realistic path to a statement decision win at UFC 321 this Saturday.
Final Umar Nurmagomedov-Mario Bautista prediction & pick
This bantamweight showdown between Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista has all the ingredients of a tactical war, but the edge goes to Nurmagomedov. After suffering his first professional loss to Merab Dvalishvili, Umar has refined his striking and chain wrestling under Khabib’s intense oversight, returning sharper and hungrier than ever.
Bautista thrives on volume and durability, but that plays directly into Umar’s positional control and calculated counter-pressure. Nurmagomedov’s timing on level changes and ability to transition from striking to grappling will be key to breaking Bautista’s pace, forcing the fight into clinch sequences where Dagestani dominance often prevails.
Expect Nurmagomedov to manage distance early, mixing jabs and calf kicks before closing with suffocating body locks. Once the fight hits the mat, his submission transitions and top control should neutralize Bautista’s energetic scrambles, removing the American’s main offensive avenues.
Bautista will compete with heart and volume, but Nurmagomedov’s tactical precision and ability to chain multiple takedown entries will define the fight’s tempo. Over three rounds, expect Umar to dominate control time, rack up ground strikes, and threaten submissions en route to a unanimous decision victory, affirming his elite status and setting up renewed title contention after UFC 321.
Final Umar Nurmagomedov-Mario Bautista Prediction & Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov (-625), Over 2.5 Rounds (-260)
