The time has come for another betting prediction and pick for UFC 321 as we turn our attention towards this next bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. Determined fighters look to bounce back from recent losses as Poland's Mateusz Rebecki takes on Slovakia's L'udovit Klein. Check our UFC odds series for the Rebecki-Klein prediction and pick.
Mateusz Rebecki (20-3) has gone 4-2 since joining the UFC in 2023. After earning a DWCS contract and winning his first three promotional fights, Rebecki has gone 1-2 over his last three and is hoping to bounce back in a big way as the slight betting underdog in this fight. Rebecki stands 5-foot-7 with a 66-inch reach.
L'udovit Klein (23-5-1) is currently 7-3-1 under the UFC banner since 2020. He notably went on a four-fight winning streak with victories over the likes of Thiago Moises and Roosevelt Roberts, but dropped his latest bout against Mateusz Gamrot. He'll look to bounce back with a better outing here. Klein stands 5-foot-7 with a 72.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 Odds: Mateusz Rebecki-L'udovit Klein Odds
Mateusz Rebecki: +120
L'udovit Klein: -142
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Mateusz Rebecki Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Chris Duncan – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Mateusz Rebecki lost a very tough bout his last time out against Chris Duncan, seriously hurt early in the fight and having to bounce back for the remaining two rounds. Typically very hard-nosed on the feet, Rebecki sports a tremendous chin and isn't afraid to eat a few shots while closing the distance. His aggressive strike-to-wrestle tactic hasn't worked as of late, so don't be surprised if we see new wrinkles added to his game ahead of this one.
While Rebecki is a dangerous striker and threatens the knockout, he doesn't throw punches with much technique, rhyme, or reason. He's much more reactionary when in the pocket against opponents, causing him to throw massive shots and often miss. However, when he's able to land, the results have been devastating and usually end with Rebecki on top chasing the finish.
During this fight, Rebecki will have to be much more technical than he's been considering his opponent's similar skill set. Klein will be able to combat his wrestling, so Rebecki will need to come up with damaging strikes on the feet to open the takedown opportunities as a result.
Why L'udovit Klein Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Mateusz Gamrot – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
L'udovit Klein was tasked with facing a top contender like Mateusz Gamrot, but didn't have enough juice to combat the wrestling prowess and striking on the feet. Klein is extremely well-rounded in his own right, but he tends to stagnate when faced with a much better opponent skill-wise. Against Rebecki, Klein will be the slight favorite and certainly has technique on his side if he's able to force Rebecki into making mistake.
Klein is currently landing on 52% of his significant strikes, a slightly better margin than Rebecki's 46%. In the pocket, Klein keeps things much tighter and could stand to land shots if he's able to force Rebecki into over-extending on his attempts. Rebecki sports a 55% striking defense rate, so Klein will have to be methodical in seeking the chin and landing his shots cleanly.
In order to win this fight, L'udovit Klein should look to be offensive from the opening bell. Rebecki is known for starting slow at times, so Klein stands to take an early lead in this fight if he's able to land meaningful offense in the first round. From there, he should be skilled enough to avoid the knockout and cruise this bout to a decision victory.
Final Mateusz Rebecki-L'udovit Klein Prediction & Pick
We have another fun fight on our hands between two brawlers with Mateusz Rebecki as the much more aggressive side in this fight. L'udovit Klein should take a more reactionary role during this fight, so his ability to counter and reverse positions on the ground will be crucial against this type of opponent.
Mateusz Rebecki, on the other hand, will have to focus on starting fast and keeping his pressure consistent throughout three rounds. While his cardio has been a question in the past, we're expecting him to be in great shape and ready to fight three rounds if need be.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with Mateusz Rebecki as he should be listed as the betting favorite. He's been much more consistent than Klein and while this may be the toughest test of his career, fellow Polish UFC talent Mateusz Gamrot should be able to give him a few tip on how to beat L'udovit Klein.
Final Mateausz Rebecki-L'udovit Klein Prediction & Pick: Mateusz Rebecki (+120)
