UFC Rio: Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen continues on the main card with the main event fight between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen in the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our de Ridder-Allen prediction and pick.
Reinier de Ridder (21-2) rides a split decision over Robert Whittaker after finishing Bo Nickal and Kevin Holland to open 4-0 in UFC. The ONE dual champ’s smothering grappling and nine minutes of control against Whittaker highlight contender form as he comes into his fight this weekend against Brendan Allen.
Brendan Allen (25-7 record) comes off back-to-back decision wins over Marvin Vettori and Anthony Hernandez, showcasing his well-rounded MMA game and durability against top-10 competition. The submission ace looks for a statement win as he comes into his fight this weekend against Reinier de Ridder.
Here are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vancouver odds: Reinier de Ridder-Brendan Allen odds
Reinier de Ridder: -198
Brendan Allen: +164
Over 3.5 rounds: +105
Under 3.5 rounds: -135
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Why Reinier de Ridder will win
- Last Fight: (W) Robert Whittaker – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 18 (4 KO/TKO/14 SUB)
Reinier de Ridder possesses overwhelming physical and grappling advantages that should carry him to victory against Brendan Allen at UFC Vancouver. The 6-foot-4 Dutch grappler brings a massive two-inch height and three-inch reach advantage, combined with world-class judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials from his ONE Championship dominance, creating nightmarish matchup problems for Allen.
De Ridder's recent split decision over Robert Whittaker showcased his ability to control elite middleweights through sheer size and smothering top pressure, amassing nine minutes of control time and proving his durability after surviving a knockdown. His previous finishes of Bo Nickal and Kevin Holland demonstrated devastating clinch work and submission mastery that Allen simply hasn't faced at this level.
Allen's cardio advantage becomes neutralized by de Ridder's full training camp preparation versus Allen's short-notice acceptance, while his tendency to fade in later rounds creates exploitable windows. The American's grappling, though solid, appears sloppy compared to de Ridder's technical precision, and his striking won't overcome the significant size differential that troubled even the sharper Robert Whittaker.
De Ridder's game plan will center on immediate clinch engagement, utilizing crushing body knees to drain Allen's gas tank before securing takedowns where his length and technique dominate. Expect the Dutchman to methodically break down Allen's defenses over five rounds, securing either a third-round submission or dominant decision as he stakes his claim for the next middleweight title shot.
Why Brendan Allen will win
- Last Fight: (W) Marvin Vettori – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 19 (5 KO/TKO/14 SUB)
Brendan Allen’s well-rounded skill set and recent momentum make him a formidable challenge for Reinier de Ridder at UFC Vancouver. The submission specialist enters the Octagon boasting a 25-7 record, including a split decision win over Marvin Vettori and a unanimous decision over Anthony Hernandez, showcasing his ability to outlast and outgrapple top-tier opponents.
Allen’s pace and conditioning set the fight’s tempo, allowing him to maintain relentless pressure through three rounds. His takedown accuracy and takedown defense, honed under elite wrestling coaches, give him control against de Ridder’s guard-pulling tendencies, preventing prolonged exchanges on the mat where de Ridder thrives.
Improved striking adds another dimension to Allen’s arsenal, as seen in his sharp counters against Vettori that kept his opponent off-balance. Mixing kicks and punches effectively, he can force de Ridder to respect his standup, creating opportunities for level changes and takedowns when the Dutchman slows to defend strikes.
The stylistic clash favors Allen’s aggressive wrestling over de Ridder’s methodical submission game, particularly in the spacious cage in Vancouver. Expect Allen to dictate where the fight takes place, use his superior athleticism and work rate to neutralize de Ridder’s grappling setups, and secure a unanimous decision victory as he cements his position in middleweight title contention.
Final Reinier de Riddero-Brendan Allen prediction & pick
This main event between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen at UFC Vancouver represents a critical middleweight clash with title implications, pitting de Ridder's imposing size and submission mastery against Allen's relentless pace and well-rounded game. De Ridder enters 21-2 with a controversial split decision over Robert Whittaker, while Allen brings a 25-7 record including recent victories over Marvin Vettori and Anthony Hernandez.
The key factor lies in de Ridder's significant physical advantages, standing 6'4″ with a three-inch reach edge that creates problems for Allen's forward pressure and clinch entries. His world-class grappling credentials from ONE Championship, where he held two simultaneous titles, combined with devastating body knees and technical submission skills, give him multiple pathways to victory once he establishes control.
Allen's cardio and output provide legitimate threats, especially if he can avoid early clinch exchanges and force de Ridder to chase him around the cage. However, de Ridder's recent performance against the sharper striker in Whittaker suggests he can weather early storms and impose his game plan as rounds progress.
The size differential proves decisive in this five-round battle. Expect de Ridder to utilize his length advantage, establish clinch control early, and systematically break down Allen's defenses with body attacks before securing either a third-round submission or clear decision victory as he positions himself for a title shot.
Final Reinier de Ridder-Montel Jackson Prediction & Pick: Reinier de Ridder (-198), Under 3.5 Rounds (-135)
