Noche UFC: Diego Lopes versus Jean Silva continues with the prelims with a fight between Tatiana Suarez and Amanda Lemos in the strawweight division at Noche UFC on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Suarez-Lemos prediction and pick.
Tatiana Suarez (10-1) enters Noche UFC after suffering her first career defeat to Zhang Weili in a unanimous decision title bout at UFC 312. Before that setback, Suarez dominated Jessica Andrade with a second-round submission in August 2023, but this weekend she looks to rebound against Amanda Lemos and reassert her place as a title threat.
Amanda Lemos (15-4-1) enters Noche UFC having recently rebounded with a unanimous decision win over Iasmin Lucindo in March 2025. Lemos seeks to capitalize on her power advantage and return to title contention with a victory over Tatiana Suarez this weekend.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC odds: Tatiana Suarez-Amanda Lemos odds
Tatiana Suarez: -455
Amanda Lemos: +350
Over 2.5 rounds: +100
Under 2.5 rounds: -130
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Why Tatiana Suarez will win
- Last Fight: (L) Weili Zhang – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 (2 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Tatiana Suarez has a clear stylistic edge over Amanda Lemos heading into Noche UFC, thanks to her dominant wrestling and relentless grappling pressure. Suarez averages well over four takedowns per fifteen minutes, and her ability to control elite opponents on the mat repeatedly neutralizes strikers like Lemos.
When Suarez gets fights to the ground, her top control and submission prowess shine—she’s finished five of her eleven career wins by submission. Conversely, Lemos is coming off a recent submission loss and has shown vulnerability when forced onto her back, especially against physically imposing wrestlers.
On the feet, Suarez continues to evolve, but her path to victory is rooted in pressing forward, quickly closing distance, and initiating clinch situations. Once Lemos is backed to the fence, Suarez’s chain wrestling and transitions give her little room to escape, wearing down Lemos’ gas tank round by round.
If Suarez executes her game plan, she can drown Lemos with pace and pressure, avoiding extended exchanges where Lemos’ striking is most dangerous. Expect Suarez to utilize her trademark takedowns, grind out minutes, and threaten submissions en route to a decisive win that keeps her firmly in the championship conversation.
Why Amanda Lemos will win
- Last Fight: (W) Iasmin Lucindo – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 11 (8 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Amanda Lemos poses a unique threat to Tatiana Suarez at Noche UFC thanks to her explosive power, precise striking, and finish rate that sets her apart in the strawweight division. Lemos lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute at over 53% accuracy, making her one of the most efficient and dangerous stand-up artists Suarez has faced.
Lemos’ devastating leg kicks and ability to counter in close quarters could stifle Suarez’s attempts to pressure and close the distance. If she establishes her range early, Lemos can punish Suarez with combinations that force hesitation, especially as Suarez enters to clinch or shoot for takedowns.
Suarez’s wrestling-focused attack requires her to get close, and Lemos has shown the timing to intercept opponents with fight-ending shots or sprawls that keep the fight upright. The Brazilian’s experience against top-tier foes and her recent win over Lucindo showcase her ability to adapt and rebound following setbacks.
If Lemos keeps the bout standing, she holds the advantage in speed, power, and finishing instincts—giving her a clear path to an upset. Expect Lemos to test Suarez with aggressive flurries, defending just enough takedowns to land a decisive blow or force a stoppage.
Final Tatiana Suarez-Amanda Lemos prediction & pick
Tatiana Suarez enters Noche UFC as the favorite to defeat Amanda Lemos, largely due to her world-class wrestling and ability to implement smothering top control. Suarez’s relentless takedowns and unyielding pace consistently allow her to dominate opponents who prefer striking at range, and Lemos has historically struggled when forced to fight off her back.
Lemos, however, brings legitimate knockout power and a dangerous striking arsenal that could make her a live underdog if she finds early success standing. Her high volume and precision provide a puncher’s chance, especially if she can hurt Suarez before getting taken down.
The key to this fight is whether Suarez can execute her gameplan before eating significant damage. If she times her entries and makes Lemos wrestle from the opening bell, Suarez should be able to exhaust the Brazilian, rack up control time, and threaten with submissions or ground-and-pound.
Expect Lemos to make things interesting early, but Suarez’s grappling edge and cardio should prevail over three rounds. The most likely outcome is Suarez earning a dominant decision or even a late submission, cementing her status as a top strawweight contender and title threat.
Final Tatiana Suarez-Amanda Lemos Prediction & Pick: Tatiana Suarez (-455), Over 2.5 Rounds (+100)
