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The Houston Texans will head up I-45 to face the Dallas Cowboys for Monday Night Football. It's the Battle of Texas as we share our NFL odds series while making a Texans-Cowboys prediction and pick.
Texans-Cowboys Last Game – Matchup History
The Cowboys defeated the Texans 27-23 in their last showdown on December 11, 2022. Despite being 239 miles apart, these teams have not faced off much in the Texans' brief history. But when they square off, it's always memorable.
Overall Series: The Cowboys lead the series 4-2 (3-0 at home)
Here are the NFL odds for the Texans-Cowboys courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Texans-Cowboys Odds
Houston Texans: -7.5 (-104)
Moneyline: -370
Dallas Cowboys: +7.5 (-118)
Moneyline: +295
Over: 42.5 (-110)
Under: 42.5 (-110)
How to Watch Texans vs. Cowboys
Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT
TV: ABC + ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread/Win
Nico Collins likely will return this week after missing the last five weeks. It is a big boon for a team that is 17th in points per game and 15th in yards per game.
CJ Stroud will be happy to have him back. Unfortunately, this season has been a struggle for him, as he is passing 2,371 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Joe Mixon has been a solid runner. So far, he has rushed 151 times for 655 yards and seven touchdowns. With Collins returning, it should help a receiving core that is already without Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, we won't get the Diggs vs. Diggs matchup, as Travon Diggs will cover Collins instead. Tank Dell may benefit from the return of Collins.
The defense collapsed last week against the Detroit Lions after a hot start. Currently, they rank 19th in points allowed per game and third in yards allowed per game. Danielle Hunter has been solid, with 15 solo tackles and 5.5 sacks. Also, Tim Settle Jr. has tallied 16 solo tackles and four sacks. Will Anderson Jr. has an ankle injury but still has delivered, with 20 solo tackles and 7.5 sacks.
The Texans will cover the spread if they can establish the running game and protect Stroud in the pocket. Then, they must force the Cowboys into making mistakes and give them a good field position.
Why The Cowboys Could Cover The Spread/Win
Mike McCarthy is struggling to keep the Cowboys competitive. However, he cannot blame the lack of Dak Prescott, as the Cowboys were getting blown out even when their star quarterback was healthy.
This offense is 23rd in points per game and 21st in yards per game. Unfortunately, things have been disastrous this season as Prescott has not been good, and then he suffered a season-ending injury. Cooper Rush is their quarterback right now, with Trey Lance waiting in the wings. Sadly, the running game has been abysmal this season as Rico Dowdle has not been good at all, with 83 rushes for 374 yards and 24 receptions for 166 yards and three touchdowns. Ceedee Lamb has 59 catches for 681 yards and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jalen Tolbert has caught 33 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns.
The defense has not been much better. So far, they rank 31st in points allowed per game and 26th in yards allowed per game. Micah Parsons has dealt with numerous injuries this season. Thus, he only has 13 solo tackles and three sacks. Carl Lawson has tallied four solo tackles and three sacks. Likewise, Chauncey Golston has added 14 solo tackles and two sacks. Diggs has been a solo cornerback, with 24 solo tackles and two interceptions.
The Cowboys will cover the spread if they can generate any semblance of a running game. Then, the defense must play opportunistic football and force some turnovers.
Final Texans-Cowboys Prediction & Pick
The Texans are 4-5-1 against the spread, while the Cowboys are 2-7 against the odds. Moreover, the Texans are 2-3 against the spread on the road, while the Cowboys are 0-4 against the odds at home. The Texans are 2-1-1 against the spread against the NFC, while the Cowboys are 2-1 against the odds against the AFC.
The Texans and Cowboys are both bruised and battered. Yet, the Texans are just a better team in general. But I am still hesitant to pick the Texans to cover this large spread because they haven't been doing a good job of doing so lately. Yes, the Cowboys are terrible and have not won a home game yet. But I think they also have some pride, and the defense will find a way to keep this game closer against a Houston offensive line that has struggled. While the Texans may win this game, the Cowboys will cover the spread for the first time this season at home.
Final Texans-Cowboys Prediction & Pick: Dallas Cowboys: +7.5 (-118)
