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The Houston Texans will battle the New England Patriots this Sunday at Gilette Stadium. This will be a big battle in Foxboro, and we're sharing our NFL odds series while making a Texans-Patriots prediction and pick.
The Texans are 4-1 after beating the Buffalo Bills 23-20 last weekend. They are still in first place in the AFC South and have a stranglehold on the division. Now, they look to win in a place that has been historically unkind to them.
The Patriots are 1-4 coming into this game with the Texans. Unfortunately, they have lost four games in a row after shocking the world and beating the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1.
Here are the Texans-Patriots NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Texans-Patriots NFL Odds
Houston Texans: -6.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -340
New England Patriots: +6.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +275
Over: 37.5 (-110)
Under: 37.5 (-110)
How to Watch Texans vs. Patriots
Time: 1 PM ET/10 AM PT
TV: CBS Sports
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread/Win
CJ Stroud is focused on this game and not his opposing quarterback, who will be making his first career start. Significantly, he has passed for 385 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. Joe Mixon is still injured, and that has affected the Texans this season. Thus, Cam Akers has taken the reigns and has rushed 38 times for 148 yards and a touchdown. But Damon Pierce may return this week. Nico Collins has a hamstring injury and will not play in this game. Therefore, the Texans need more of Stefon Diggs, who has 31 catches for 310 yards and two touchdowns. Tank Dell may need to do more, and he has 13 catches for 137 yards but has not scored yet.
The defense is exceptional. Ultimately, four players stand out. Will Anderson Jr. has tallied eight solo tackles and 2.5 sacks. Meanwhile, Mario Edwards has added five solo tackles and two sacks. Derek Stingley Jr. has had 12 solo tackles and one interception. Likewise, Calen Bullock has tallied 10 solo tackles and one sack.
The Texans will cover the spread if they can establish a coherent running game. Then, the defense must disrupt the New England running game and force the young quarterback to pass.
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread/Win
Drake Maye gets the start this weekend for the Patriots. How will he do? He gets a tough defense to start against, which may prove to be beneficial down the line. Rhamondre Stevenson is their top running back. So far, he has run 77 times for 356 yards and three touchdowns while catching 13 passes for 37 yards. Antonio Gibson has been solid in reserve. Significantly, he has rushed 35 times for 207 yards and caught eight passes for 153 yards. The Pats need Hunter Henry to do more. Ultimately, he has caught 16 passes for 180 yards but still has not secured a touchdown.
The defense has been stout but still has its issues. Yet, three players stand out. Deatrich Wise Jr. has tallied four solo tackles and two sacks. Likewise, Kion White has added 13 solo tackles and four sacks. Joshua Uche has garnered nine solo tackles and two sacks.
The Patriots will cover the spread if they can establish the ground game to make things easier for Maye. Then, they must stop Stroud from getting hot.
Final Texans-Patriots Prediction & Pick
The Patriots lead the head-to-head series 9-3 and also won 25-22 in their last battle on October 20, 2021. Yet, the Texans are 2-1 in the past three games, all at NRG Stadium. But the Texans have never beaten the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Moreover, they are 0-7 in their past seven road games as the favorites. The home team has covered the spread in the last four games. Curiously, the Texans are 8-0 in their past eight games as favorites against AFC teams.
The Texans are just 1-3-1 against the spread in 2024, while the Patriots are 1-3-1. Furthermore, the Texans are 0-2 against the spread on the road, while the Pats are 0-1-1 at home.
The Texans have never won here. However, they are a much better team now. Will it be enough? We will find out as the Texans head into Foxboro and hope to find a way to beat the Pats. It might help that the Patriots will be starting a new quarterback as Maye makes his first official start. That will be incentive enough for the Patriots to at least compete in this one. I do think the Texans will find a way to win this game. But they have not been blowing anyone out. Expect this one to go down to the wire, with the Texans possibly getting their first win in New England.
Final Texans-Patriots Prediction & Pick: New England Patriots +6.5 (-102)
