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The UFC Vegas 88 Prelims continue on ESPN+ as we're set to bring you another betting prediction and pick for this exciting card from the Apex. The next bout takes place in the Lightweight (155) Division as Brazil's Thiago Moises takes on Syndicate MMA's Mitch Ramirez. Check out our UFC odds series for our Moises-Ramirez prediction and pick.
Thiago Moises (17-7) comes into this fight with a 6-5 UFC record since 2016. He's faced some of the best the division has to offer recently notched two wins over Christos Giagois and Melquizael Costa. He dropped his last fight to another contender in Benoit Saint-Denis and will be looking to get back in the win column once again. Moises stands 5'9″ with a 70.5-inch reach.
Mitch Ramirez (8-1) will be making his official UFC debut here on this card. He lost his fight on Dana White's Contender Series by a slim margin and picked up a win in LFA following the defeat. After Brad Riddell fell out of this fight against Moises, Ramirez got the call for a second chance and his UFC debut. He stands 5'11” with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Vegas 88 Odds: Thiago Moises-Mitch Ramirez Odds
Thiago Moises: -370
Mitch Ramirez: +295
Over 1.5 rounds: -155
Under 1.5 rounds: +125
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Why Thiago Moises Will Win
Thiago Moises was set to face Brad Riddell higher on the card this weekend until Riddell pulled out last-minute with an injury. It's been a while since Moises was this big of a betting favorite, but it goes to show how competitive and deep this division is when trying to earn a top-15 ranking. With multiple world championships in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Moises will have the big advantage on the ground during this fight.
Moises is also a very hard puncher, but it's only translated to three of his wins coming by knockout. He has three-times as many wins by submission and while his new opponent here is tough, he'll be no match for Moises in the grappling. Moises should look to throw his strikes with the intent on tying Ramirez up and eventually finding his back from the submission.
Why Mitch Ramirez Will Win
Mitch Ramirez got a tough draw in having to face a UFC-ready prospect in Carlos Prates on Dana White's Contender Series. It was Prates' twenty-third professional bout and he fought with a noticeable size and reach advantage over Ramirez. Still, Ramirez was able to make it a close fight and certainly had his moments throughout. The UFC clearly sees a similar fighting style in his to Brad Riddell's, so we should be in for a close, competitive bout nonetheless.
Mitch Ramirez has a solid boxing foundation and does a great job of slipping and parrying his opponents' punches. He seeks counter shot when striking in the pocket and he's very good about taking his time. He likes to strike and shoot for a single leg, but he'll have to be careful of where he's placing his head at all times. Still, Ramirez could have the better chance to win this fight by knockout with his hands and should try to keep it on the feet.
Final Thiago Moises-Mitch Ramirez Prediction & Pick
While the original matchup between Thiago Moises and Brad Riddell could have been a fun one to watch, I don't think we'll be losing many fireworks with a fighter like Mitch Ramirez stepping into the spot. He'll be a big underdog in his debut but knows he has nothing to lose and everything to gain from taking this fight.
Mitch Ramirez will be dangerous with his knockout power throughout this fight and if he's able to catch one of Moises' strikes and counter hard, he could get an early knockdown and change the look of this fight.
Still, Thiago Moises is worlds ahead of Ramirez in the submission grappling and this fight will be in his hands if he's able to get the fight to the ground. I feel confident in Moises finding Ramirez' back at least once during this fight and it'll only be a matter of time before he sinks in a submission.
For our prediction, we're going to side with the betting lines here and take Thiago Moises to win the fight. He's better on paper and more experienced, so this should be his fight to lose. There's not much value in betting his line straight-up and I wouldn't include his volatility in any parlays, but we can take a chance with his submission prop bet.
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Final Thiago Moises-Mitch Ramirez Prediction & Pick: Thiago Moises (-370); Wins by Submission (+115)
