We're back with another betting prediction and pick for today's NBA slate as we head to the Western Conference for this next showdown. The Oklahoma City Thunder (40-13) will take on the Los Angeles Lakers (32-19) with Oklahoma City leading the season series 1-0. Check our NBA odds series for the Thunder-Lakers prediction and pick.
The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lead the Western Conference by 3.5 games, most recently falling to the Houston Rockets 112-106. They've suffered back-to-back losses for just the third time this season, hoping to bounce back with a win without their reigning MVP in the lineup.
The Los Angeles Lakers are currently fifth in the Western Conference following their 105-99 win over the Golden State Warriors. It marked their third-consecutive win, posting a solid 7-3 record over their last 10 games. They'll also be without their MVP candidate ahead of this one.
NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings
Thunder vs. Lakers Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: -6.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Lakers: +6.5 (-105)
Over: 223.5 (-110)
Under: 223.5 (-110)
Thunder vs. Lakers Key Injuries
Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdomen – OUT) / Ajay Mitchell (abdomen – OUT) / Thomas Sorber (ACL – OUT) / Nikola Topic (surgery recovery – OUT)
Los Angeles: Deandre Ayton (knee – Probable) / Luka Doncic (hamstring – OUT) / Adou Thiero (knee – OUT)
Thunder vs. Lakers Betting Trends
- The Los Angeles Lakers are 14-8 at home this season. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 18-7 on the road.
- The Thunder are 40-12 as betting favorites. The Lakers are 8-12 as underdogs.
- The Lakers are 29-22 ATS overall, 13-9 ATS at home. The Thunder are 25-28 ATS overall, 12-13 ATS on the road.
- The Lakers are 6-4 outright, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Thunder.
- The Thunder are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
- The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Thunder's last five games.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Lakers' last 11 games.
Keys to Thunder vs. Lakers Matchup
The Oklahoma City Thunder managed a decisive 121-92 win over Los Angeles earlier in the season fueled by 30 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Luka Doncic was the Lakers' leading scorer with 19 points on an off shooting night, but this time around will certainly look different with both SGA and Doncic injured ahead of this meeting. Gilgeous-Alexander has been massively durable and reliable for his team this season as they've posted a 2-2 record without him this year. The Lakers are slightly better at 5-4 without Doncic this season and this close spread could be thanks to a healthy Austin Reaves finally back for Los Angeles.
The Lakers have surprisingly looked like the better team through the last five games as LeBron James and Luka Doncic will lead the charge for them in this one. Both Rui Hachimura and Jared Vanderbilt have risen to the occasion with team-high rebounding totals over their last two wins, a promising sign given Deandre Ayton isn't at 100% with a lingering knee injury. While the Thunder boast one of the deepest rosters in the NBA, the Lakers will greatly benefit from their role players getting involved throughout this one.
While Oklahoma City may not be the same team without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading them in scoring, Cason Wallace has been great in stepping up his scoring during the absence. He's logged 30+ minutes in three of their last four games, all resulting in double-digit scoring totals. The addition of Jared McCain from the 76ers should add some depth in situations where SGA is out, coupled with the resilient defensive efforts of Alex Caruso from the shooting guard slot.
Austin Reaves scored a team-high 35 points just two games ago while LeBron James led them with 20 points his last time out. Reaves has posted double-digit scoring totals in his three games returning from his December 2025 injury while also notching 19 total assists during this recent stretch. He does a great deal to make up for the loss of Luka Doncic and if he can continue this recent hot streak he's been on, he'll give the Lakers a great chance to upset here.
Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction and Pick
While the first meeting between these two squads wasn't particularly close, this matchup should be much more even with the Thunder struggling without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. While the Lakers are missing Luka, they've been much more consistent and Austin Reaves should keep them competitive throughout this whole game.
It will be interesting to see if the Thunder make adjustments on defense as they're the No. 1-ranked NBA team in overall defensive efficiency rating. The Lakers, however, boast one of the highest-scoring offenses and will be the aggressors at home without SGA as a scoring threat for the Thunder.
For our final prediction, we're going to face OKC here and roll with the Los Angeles Lakers to cover at home, a spot they've typically been consistent in all season.
Final Thunder-Lakers Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +6.5 (-105); OVER 223.5 (-110)
