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College football fans and sports bettors rejoice! This weekend marks the official start of the 2023-2024 college football season. Most of the top teams aren’t expected to be playing very competitive games, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plentiful opportunities to place quality bets with good profit potential. Keep reading to find my favorite picks for this weekend as we look forward to the return of college football!
Be sure to stay tuned to our college football odds series for more on the NCAA.
Here are the college football odds courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Stanford vs. Hawaii
Stanford: -3 (-112)
Hawaii: +3 (-108)
Hawaii is an intriguing team with the potential to be really good this season and surprise a lot of people. Brayden Schager is a talented, if inconsistent, player at quarterback. He struggled with interceptions, but last season this was also a team built more for a power running and short passing game that insisted instead on trying to run a vertical passing offense. That style of playing didn't do Schager many favors, as he had trouble keeping the ball away from the defense. Schager ended last season on a positive note, and I believe in him. A player as talented as he is with a full offseason under his belt to identify his weaknesses and work on them will only come back stronger.
The other area Hawaii struggled with the most last year was their defense, particularly their secondary. Adding transfer cornerback Cam Stone should solidify their number-one corner role and allow this defense to take a significant step forward.
Hawaii’s game plan to victory this season includes limiting turnovers, having a productive run game, and slowing down the opposing team’s offense, particularly limiting explosive plays and quick strikes down the field. I’m confident that internal improvements, particularly at the QB position, will help with the former, and that Cam Stone’s presence along with internal growth should help achieve the latter.
Hawaii lost a lot of competitive games last season, and with new additions and internal improvements, I’m confident that they will at least keep this game within a field goal, if not win outright.
Stanford-Hawaii Pick: Hawaii +3 (-108)
College Football Odds: Ohio State vs. Indiana
Ohio State: -29.5 (-115)
Indiana: +29.5 (-105)
If you have followed my betting articles in the past, you likely know that college football spreads with heavy favorites are bets that I typically try to avoid. This is because these bets often come down to desire, rather than skill. When a top team such as Georgia, Alabama, or Ohio State is playing a team that is average or below, more times than not they can win by 50 if they care enough about the final score. However, coaches have other priorities than running up the score, such as trying out new concepts, building depth by getting other guys playing time, and keeping their starters healthy and rested. Additionally, injuries are more likely when one team is frustrated and embarrassed if they feel the other team is running up the score intentionally.
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However, this week’s game isn’t your typical heavy favorite playing. Ohio State doesn’t have a consensus starting quarterback, and head coach Ryan Day has been consistent in saying that there will be an open competition at the position. Kyle McCord and Devin Brown will both get plenty of opportunities to lead scoring drives. Because this is Week One and both quarterbacks will be given a chance to showcase their skills and prove what they can do, we should see a full game from Ohio State without the Buckeyes taking their foot off the gas. This isn’t a situation of a backup getting mop-up duty when the game is out of hand, where the team will often elect to just run the ball. Both QBs are fighting for the starting role and will be pushing the ball down the field and trying to score. Day will likely allow them to do so in order to see who the true starter should be going forward.
Both kids are talented, with an elite offense around them led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and TreVeyon Henderson. The team will be able to put up points all day, it just comes down to how aggressive the playcalling is in the second half. Due to the unique circumstances this team is facing, I anticipate the playcalling to stay aggressive and the team to treat the game as if the score is 0-0 all day.
This is a rare opportunity to back a heavy favorite on the spread with confidence that they will maintain their aggressiveness and competitiveness all afternoon. I’m backing the Buckeyes in this matchup.
Ohio State-Indiana Pick: Ohio State -29.5 (-115)
College Football Odds: USC vs. Nevada
USC: -38.5 (-110)
Nevada: +38.5 (-110)
Nevada is a very poor offensive team, and while USC is elite offensively, asking any team to score 50+ points reliably is a tall ask. While Nevada struggled offensively last season, averaging just slightly over 16 points per game, one of the few bright spots for the team offensively was their running game.
USC’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, and I’m expecting Nevada to be able to run the ball at least semi-competently. This will allow them to eat the clock and keep Caleb Williams and the explosive USC offense standing harmlessly on the sidelines.
USC-Nevada Pick: Nevada +38.5 (-110); Under 66.5 (-110)
