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Every weekend in the NFL season features opportunities to bet on underdogs to win outright. While these are some of the toughest bets to find, they are also the most exciting, and the most financially rewarding when you win, as you will be making plus money (winning more than you wagered). Let’s take a look at some of the best underdogs to bet on in week two of the 2023 NFL season.
Be sure to stay tuned to our NFL odds series for more on betting around the NFL.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Bears at Buccaneers
Bears: +128
Buccaneers: -152
The Buccaneers are still adapting to life post-Tom Brady, and Chicago is a young team with potential. The Bears have a talented defense and a young and improving offense. Justin Fields may not be the best pure passer, but he is electrifying with his legs and is making improvements throwing the ball. The addition of DJ Moore should help immensely by giving Fields a legitimate target down the field, and Moore is a threat that defenses must account for on every play he is on the field.
Baker Mayfield wasn’t terrible by any means last week, but Chicago’s defense is for real. I think they will limit Mike Evans and the run game, put pressure on Mayfield to make something happen himself, and force him to make throws under duress. All of these factors should translate into at least a few mistakes. If the Bears can capitalize on these mistakes when they occur and force turnovers, Chicago should be able to put themselves in a great position to force an upset victory against Tampa Bay.
NFL Pick: Bears +128
NFL Odds: Ravens at Bengals
Ravens: +138
Bengals: -164
The Bengals got their season off to an underwhelming start last weekend, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Joe Burrow and company stumble again when Baltimore comes to town this weekend. They should definitely play better than they did last week, but Baltimore is a good team and I envision this being a close game.
Baltimore will be missing some key players, but they are a physical and well-coached team, and those are the types of teams that I hate to bet against.
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According to my model, I grade this game as a 56% to 44% chance for the Bengals to win. However, with Baltimore’s moneyline indicating implied odds of just 42.02%, I see value in taking the Ravens to win outright. They might not pull it off, but if I can consistently find bets like this that provide value every week I’m confident that I’ll be profitable at the end of the season.
NFL Pick: Ravens +138
NFL Odds: Browns at Steelers
Browns: -136
Steelers: +116
I think if this game was played on a neutral field it would be a true toss-up. The Browns aren’t as elite as they looked last week in a surprising victory against the Bengals, and the Steelers are nowhere near as terrible as they looked against San Francisco.
I think sentiment is factoring in a bit too much here in terms of seeming confirmation bias: The Browns are the rising team with a quarterback who used to be elite in Deshaun Watson, and the Steelers with a second-year quarterback who struggled last season are just as bad as we thought that they would be.
I think Pittsburgh received a reality check against a 49ers defense that might be top five or even top three in the whole league at the end of the season, and they know what adjustments they need to make. Kenny Pickett should be more comfortable this week especially if the running game improves, and even without Cam Heyward, I think TJ Watt and company will make Watson’s life miserable on Monday night.
Given that I’m grading this game as a true coin toss on a neutral field, and the Steelers will have home-field advantage, I definitely feel comfortable taking advantage of an opportunity to place a bet on Pittsburgh here at slight plus money.
NFL Pick: Steelers +116
