Subscribe
Follow Us
This weekend's UFC Fight Night in Mexico City promises an electrifying showcase of talent, headlined by a crucial flyweight bout between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg. Moreno, the former two-time champion, aims to build on his recent victory over Amir Albazi and reassert his claim for another title shot. Erceg, despite coming off two losses, has shown he can hang with the division's elite and will be hungry to upset the hometown hero.
Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg face off for the first time 👀🇲🇽#UFCMexico pic.twitter.com/GWWzOwLEEy
— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) March 24, 2025
The co-main event features a lightweight slugfest between Manuel Torres and Drew Dober. Torres, known for his aggressive style and finishing ability, will look to bounce back from his recent loss. Dober, a veteran with explosive power, aims to snap his own two-fight skid in what should be a fan-friendly firefight.
In a compelling middleweight clash, Kelvin Gastelum faces the surging Joe Pyfer. Gastelum's experience and wrestling could prove crucial, but Pyfer's knockout power and momentum make him a dangerous opponent. The card also features exciting prospects like Raul Rosas Jr., who faces his toughest test yet in Vince Morales. With a mix of established veterans and rising stars, this event showcases the depth of talent in the UFC's lighter weight classes.
Fighting in Mexico City's high altitude always adds an extra layer of intrigue, potentially impacting fighters' cardio and performance. The passionate crowd at Arena CDMX is sure to create an electric atmosphere, especially for the local fighters on the card. This event may not have the star power of a pay-per-view, but it's packed with competitive matchups and potential barnburners that should deliver an entertaining night of fights for MMA fans.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Top Betting Underdogs
Steve Erceg: +200
Melquizael Costa: +140
Manuel Torres: -105
Steve Erceg (+200) vs. Brandon Moreno
Steve Erceg has a real chance to upset Brandon Moreno this weekend at UFC Mexico City. Despite being the underdog, Erceg's well-rounded skillset and recent momentum could prove troublesome for the former champion. Moreno has shown vulnerability in his last few outings, going 2-3 in his past five fights. Erceg's takedown defense and ground game could neutralize Moreno's grappling, forcing a striking battle where Erceg's power might be the difference-maker.
The high altitude of Mexico City is another factor that could work in Erceg's favor, potentially affecting Moreno's cardio. Additionally, Moreno's 0-2-1 record in UFC fights in Mexico adds psychological pressure. Erceg, with less to lose and everything to gain, might capitalize on Moreno's hometown expectations. If Erceg can weather Moreno's early storm and push the pace in later rounds, he could secure a career-defining victory and shake up the flyweight division.
Melquizael Costa (+140) vs. Christian Rodriguez
Melquizael Costa has a strong chance of defeating Christian Rodriguez at UFC Mexico City this weekend. Costa's recent momentum is impressive, coming off a quick submission victory over Andre Fili just 35 days ago. This win showcased Costa's improved grappling skills and his ability to finish fights. His experience fighting top-tier opponents and his mental toughness under pressure give him an edge.
Rodriguez, while known for spoiling prospects' undefeated records, may struggle with Costa's well-rounded skillset. Costa's striking prowess, evidenced by his high body strikes landed per round (7.75), combined with his submission threats, could overwhelm Rodriguez. The quick turnaround for Costa might actually work in his favor, keeping him sharp and in fight shape. Given Costa's recent performances and growing confidence, he has the tools to outwork Rodriguez on the feet and potentially secure another submission victory, continuing his upward trajectory in the UFC's featherweight division.
Manuel Torres (-105) vs. Drew Dober
Manuel Torres has the tools to defeat Drew Dober this weekend at UFC Mexico City. Torres, known for his explosive striking and aggressive style, holds a significant statistical edge in striking accuracy (58% vs. Dober's 40%) and a reach advantage of three inches. His ability to land over eight strikes per minute and maintain a positive strike differential (+2.64) showcases his high-paced offense, which could overwhelm Dober early.
Torres thrives in chaotic fights, often finishing opponents in the first round, with 14 of his career victories ending within the opening frame. His versatility as both a striker and grappler—seven wins by KO and seven by submission—adds unpredictability to his game. Additionally, at 29 years old, Torres is younger, fresher, and less worn than the 36-year-old Dober, who has been on a two-fight losing streak. Fighting in front of a passionate hometown crowd in Mexico City could further fuel Torres’ aggression and energy. If he can avoid Dober’s power shots and capitalize on his speed and precision, Torres is likely to secure another highlight-reel finish.
