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UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje continues on the prelims with a fight in the welterweight division between Matthew Semelsberger and Uros Medic. Semelsberger is coming off a loss in his last bout meanwhile, Medic is coming off a win in his last fight and has been on the shelf for the last 14 months and is stepping in on less than two week's notice and up a weight class. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Semelsberger-Medic prediction and pick.
Matthew Semelsberger (11-5) was riding high off a huge win against Jake Matthews in December 2022 but that was short-lived when he couldn't get past Jeremiah Wells dropping a close split decision. In that fight, he dropped and hurt Wells on multiple occasions but got controlled on the mat which was his demise. He looks to get back into the win column when he takes on short-notice replacement Uros Medic.
Uros Medic (8-1) is a finisher by nature as he has finished all eight of his professional wins which are split between six knockouts and two submissions. He most recently knocked out Omar Morales back in May 2022 which makes this fight his first in the last 14 months. He is taking this fight up a weight class on less than two weeks' notice when he fights the dangerous Matthew Semelsberger at UFC 291.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 291 Odds: Matthew Semelsberger-Uros Medic Odds
Matthew Semelsberger: -215
Uros Medic: +172
Over 1.5 Rounds: -136
Under 1.5 Rounds: +108
How to Watch Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET/ 3:30 p.m. PT (Early Prelims)
Why Matthew Semelsberger Will Win
Article Continues Below
Matthew Semelsberger is known for his powerful striking, with 6 of his 11 wins coming by way of knockout. He has demonstrated his striking ability in his previous fights, landing significant strikes at a rate of 43%. If he can land clean shots on Medic, he could potentially finish the fight early.
Semelsberger has more experience in the UFC, with 8 fights under his belt compared to Medic, who will be making his fourth walk to the octagon. He also has wins against tough opposition like Jake Matthews and AJ Fletcher. Also, Medic is taking this fight on about two weeks' notice and will be stepping in weight to make this fight happen.
While Medic was never really the smallest lightweight on the roster, the move up to welterweight could be detrimental to his cardio if this fight extends past the first half of the fight. It's going to be up to Semelsberger to hang in there and drag Medic into deep waters and get the late finish.
Why Uros Medic Will Win
Uros Medic is stepping in as a short-notice replacement for Semelsberger's original opponent Yohan Leinesse. While both Leinesse and Medic are strikers by trade they are completely different strikers. Medic does his best work pressuring his opponents and utilizing his crisp boxing to land powerful shots. Lainesse would use his kicks to keep his opponent at bay while attempting to counter with his opponent dictating the pace of the fight.
Medic has a high motor that throws a ton of volume which could certainly cause problems for Semelsberger if he isn't well-equipped and prepared for that type of fight. While Semelsberger has never been knocked out or even knocked down in his UFC career, Medic has some sneaky good power behind his strikes with six of his eight wins coming by knockout and he has four knockdowns with three knockouts over his last four fights as well, making this a dangerous proposition for Semelsberger.
Final Matthew Semelsberger-Uros Medic Prediction & Pick
This fight is going to be absolutely nuts for however long it lasts. Neither fighter has been knocked out in their career but these two have never fought each other. There should be no feeling out process as Medic is normally a fast starter and will bring the fight to Semelsberger. Seeing that Semelsberger's glaring weakness is his grappling and Medic isn't a grappler by any means, he has nothing to worry about there.
What he should be worried about is just being outworked by Medic in this fight. In Semelsberger's previous fights, we've seen him lose by just simply not doing enough on the feet much like he did in the loss to Alex Morono. If Semelsberger doesn't get the finish he could be on the wrong end of being outworked in this fight against Medic. Given the current line, I'd much rather side with Medic who should have the speed and volume advantage than the lay chalk on the fight that should play relatively close. Medic goes in there and just outworks and out volumes Semelsberger for his second win in a row.
Final Matthew Semelsberger-Uros Medic Prediction & Pick: Uros Medic (+172), Under 1.5 Rounds (+108)
