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We're back with another prediction and pick for this stacked UFC 291 Main Card as we turn our attention towards the Welterweight (170 lb) Division for a ranked matchup. No. 7 Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson will face Brazil's No. 15 Michel Pereira. This should be a delight for any striking fan! Check out our UFC odds series for our Thompson-Pereira prediction and pick.
Stephen Thompson is 17-6-1 as a mixed martial artist and has gone 12-6-1 in his fights with the UFC. A constant favorite in the sport, Thompson looked his best during his last win against Kevin Holland. While he dropped fights to Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, Thompson continues to evolve his game and improves every single time out. He'll look to put on another striking masterclass against a willing dance partner. Wonderboy stands 6'0″ with a 75-inch reach.
Michel Pereira is 28-11 as a professional fighter and is 6-2 during his UFC contests. After dropping two consecutive fights early into his tenure, Pereira has managed to win five fights in a row and has seemed unstoppable as of late. He's dialed back his wildness in the octagon and will look for a huge win that would see him overtake Thompson's ranking. Pereira stands 6'1″ with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 291 Odds: Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira Odds
Stephen Thompson: -166
Michel Pereira: +130
Over (2.5) rounds: -230
Under (2.5) rounds: +176
How to Watch Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira
TV: ESPN+ Pay-Per-View
Stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
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Why Stephen Thompson Will Win
Many people thought Thompson was starting to decline after losses to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad, but he clearly faced two grapplers that were much better than him and exploited the gap. Against a willing striker like Kevin Holland, Thompson was able to open up his striking and fight where he's most comfortable. In doing so, he looked world-class once again and even seemed a bit faster with his movements. This may be a new, more dialed-in version of Wonderboy and he's happy to see another striker in Pereira on the other side.
Thompson wins many of his fights with his speed and precision. He'll need to be on point here, but he'll also have to move his feet and avoid the counters of Pereira. Pereira's got the power advantage in this one so Thompson may have to dart in and out of range and land the points early on. If Thompson can come out and look like he did against Holland, his composure and cardio should lift him to a win here.
Why Michel Pereira Will Win
Michael Pereira is mostly known for his wild fighting style and unorthodox attacks, but he's done a great job of dialing his game back and focusing more on his technique. He's a very gifted athlete and feels comfortable both with his striking and wrestling. He has great power in his hands with 10 knockouts to his name. His last fight with Santiago Ponzinibbio was a close bout in which both fighters ate clean shots. Facing an even better striker in Thompson, Pereira may want to use some of his grappling in this matchup.
Michel Pereira will have to be accurate with his striking if he wants to have a chance in this one. He tends to throw looping shots with power behind them, which may be hard to find against a fast guy like Thompson. Pereira should look to shorten his strikes and cut Thompson's movement off in the cage. He doesn't use his leg kicks a whole lot, so he may have to add some new striking variations to counter the unpredictable attacks of Thompson. If he's smart, Pereira will see what happened to Thompson in his recent losses and get this fight to the mat.
Final Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira Prediction & Pick
Michel Pereira seems to finally be hitting the sweet spot of controlled chaos that he's been looking for. He's looked great in his last five fights and has a ton of confidence with getting his sixth in a row. However, we've seen what Stephen Thompson can do to boxers like Vicente Luque. We've also seen him pick apart fighters who aren't as technical as he is on the feet. For the prediction, we'll go with Stephen Thompson to get the win. This seems like a bad matchup for Pereira if Thompson can get into a striking flow. With the total where it is, expect this to be a three-round affair.
Final Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira Prediction & Pick: Stephen Thompson (-166)
