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We're back with another prediction and pick for Main Card action at UFC 293 from Sydney, Australia. The action is starting to heat up as we turn our attention towards the Flyweight (125 lb) Division for this next bout. No. 10 ranked Manel Kape will take on Felipe dos Santos making his debut on short notice. Check out our UFC odds series for our Kape-dos Santos prediction and pick.
Manel Kape (18-6) comes into this fight with a 3-2 record in his time with the UFC. He's currently on a three-fight win streak that's seen him take down formidable opponents in Ode Osbourne, Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and David Dvorak. Since his last win, Kape has had three cancelled fights due to various reasons, incuding Kai Kara-France pulling out of this bout on Monday. He now faces a debuting DWCS alum. Kape stands 5'5″ with a 68-inch reach.
Felipe dos Santos (7-0) gets the nod for his UFC debut as an undefeated prospect out of LFA. He trains out of Cute Boxe Diego Lima in Brazil alongside former champion Charles Oliveira. After Kara-France's cancellation, dos Santos get's thrusted into the biggest spot of his life just seven fights into his professional career. A win would certainly propel him to the biggest stage at flyweight. Dos Santos stands 5'7″ with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 293 Odds: Manel Kape-Felipe dos Santos Odds
Manel Kape: -430
Felipe dos Santos: +300
Over 2.5 rounds: +140
Under 2.5 rounds: -180
How to Watch Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN app, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Manel Kape Will Win
This was supposed to be a great opportunity for Kape to jump the rankings over a top contender in Kara-France and put his skills to the test. Now, he faces a debuting fighter on less than a week's notice with everything on the line, including his top ten ranking. Still, Kape will be the much more talented striker in this fight and should have an edge as long as they keep it standing. Kara-France was set to be a another willing striker for Kape to face off against, but he'll have to pivot to facing this dangerous submission artist in dos Santos.
Manel Kape comes in as the heavy favorite thanks to his skill and experience, but he'll still have to take his opponent seriously in this one. We've seen a number of ranked guys get stunned by last-minute replacement fighters, so Kape will have to stay inside of himself and not give in to the moment. His takedown defense is solid at 69% and he's never been knocked out in a fight. As long as Kape can control where this fight takes place, he should grab the smooth win.
Why Felipe dos Santos Will Win
Felipe dos Santos is cut from the same cloth as Charles Oliveira through their rigorous training at Chute Boxe in Brazil. He's very rangy and will snap a long right hand over the top. He's fairly well-rounded in mixing his martial arts, but there's no question that he's much more dangerous as a submission artist. Taking this fight on such short notice is the ultimate opportunity for him, so we'll see him fight hard and make this interesting as he has nothing to lose.
Dos Santos is likely to struggle if he tries to stand and strike with Manel Kape. His skills aren't as sophisticated and he should avoid shooting for desperate takedowns if he's getting out-struck. Instead, dos Santos should use his movement and get Kape to over-extend or make a mistake. From there, he can take the back or lock in a sneaky submission. Kape has been known to be cocky inside of the cage, so don't sleep on dos Santos pulling out a tricky submission attempt at some point.
Final Manel Kape-Felipe dos Santos Prediction & Pick
Manel Kape is certainly the favorite to win this fight. He's been preparing for a much better opponent and has more experience over the debuting dos Santos. However, we've seen Kape play with his food inside the cage and he recently let his emotions boil-over at the press conference when he threw a water bottle Kai Kara-France in the stands. Dos Santos is a savage from Chute Boxe and will fight hard to the last second.
While Kape is our pick to win this fight, don't sleep on dos Santos' submission capabilities. If he can time it perfectly, don't be surprised if we see another shocker from a debuting fights. We'll be putting our money on Kape, but look towards a dos Santos submission prop if you're feeling lucky.
Final Manel Kape-Felipe dos Santos Prediction & Pick: Manel Kape (-430); Wins by Submission (+800)
