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UFC 296 is live and we're set to bring you another prediction and pick for this stacked Preliminary card. This next bout takes place in the Featherweight (145) Division.
Team Alpha Male's Andre Fili will take on Brazil's Lucas Almeida in a fight that's sure to bring the fireworks! Check out our UFC odds series for our Fili-Almeida prediction and pick.
Andre Fili (22-10) comes into this fight with a 10-9-1 record in the UFC. He's been on a downslide lately and has gone 1-3-1 in his last five fights.
His last win was an exciting split decision over Bill Algeo, but he lost his last fight to Nathanial Wood via unanimous decision. Now he'll have another unique fighter to deal with as he tries to get back to the winning track. Fili stands 5-foot-11 with a 74-inch reach.
Lucas Almeida (14-2) will be making his third walk to the UFC octagon following a 1-1 start under the promotion. Since winning his debut, he's had four fights scheduled, including one against Fili, and has had all of them fall through due to pullouts and injuries.
He faced an extremely tough fighter in Pat Sabatini during his last loss, and he'll be excited to finally meet with Fili. Lucas Almeida stands 5-11 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 296 Odds: Andre Fili-Lucas Almeida Odds
Andre Fili: -175
Lucas Almeida: +145
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -150
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Why Andre Fili Will Win
Andre Fili had one of the best performances of his career against Bill Algeo, and he dominated with his quick striking as he barely let Algeo mount any offense for himself. Against most fighters, Fili comes in with a speed advantage and has great athleticism when moving around the cage. He's always willing to stand and trade in the center of the cage and we've seen a solid chin from him thus far.
However, he's the much more tenured veteran in this contest and won't want to give up too many clean shots to the head. Fili will also be looking to mix in his leg kicks as he loves coupling his quick-snap jab with a following high leg kick.
Andre Fili had a tough outing in his last fight and couldn't do anything to stop the chain wrestling tactics of Pat Sabatini. We've seen him struggle with talented grapplers in the past, but he'll have peace knowing his opponent has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC.
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If the fight remains on the feet, Fili should have the slight advantage as he's the much more polished striker in all aspects. If Fili can stay patient and play the distance game, he should be able to land enough strikes and eventually turn this fight into a scrap.
Why Lucas Almeida Will Win
Lucas Almeida got the rare opportunity to fight in the UFC following his loss to Daniel Zellhuber on Dana White's Contender Series. The fight was a barnburner, and while he lost, Dana White saw a ton of promise and heart in Almeida and is now willing to give him a chance.
From what we've seen, he has a tremendous chin and is willing to trade blows in a phone booth with anyone. He's landing over five significant strikes per minute, and he's hitting on 47 percent of them, making him very accurate and dangerous. If he's able to find Fili in the pocket, look for Almeida to unleash a flurry of combinations with his hands.
It will be interesting to see if Almeida chooses to stand in front of Fili during this fight and whether there will be a big difference in their punching speed. He'll have to keep his hands fast, and while he may be at a slight disadvantage, he should be the fighter possessing slightly more power, opening the door for the knockout.
With the way they both press forward, don't be surprised if Almeida is able to land some nasty counterpunches as Fili tries to step in. All in all, he should look to catch his opponent the moment he tries closing the distance.
Final Andre Fili-Lucas Almeida Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun fight early on in this card, and both stand a chance to win with their aggressive striking. They both have similar fighting styles, and we should see this one take place primarily on the feet.
Andre Fili is the more technical striker with faster boxing combinations, but Lucas Almeida has much more power and can shut the lights off with one punch. We're excited to see which guy can impose their style more effectively.
Ultimately, the wrestling advantage for Fili will be the difference during this fight. While most people know him as a striker, he's actually a very talented wrestler and sees a ton of training with it at Team Alpha Male. I expect him to find a takedown if he's threatened during this fight.
In the end, his forward pressure on the feet and top pressure in the grappling should be enough to get him this win. Let's roll with Andrew Fili for our prediction.
Final Andre Fili-Lucas Almeida Prediction & Pick: Andre Fili (-175)
