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We're back and set to bring you another prediction and pick for the UFC 296 Main Card as we'll see a massive ranked matchup in the Welterweight (170) Division. No. 5-ranked Shavkat Rakhmonov will face off against No. 6-ranked Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson as both fighters try to state their claim for a title shot. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rakhmonov-Thompson prediction and pick.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0) has managed to remain perfect through his first five UFC fight en route to his top-five ranking. He's been thrust into the fire from the start of his journey and he's been able to finish every appearance he's had thus far, once by knockout and four times by submission. Now, he'll face a legend of the UFC as he tries to make his claim for the next title shot. Rakhmonov stands 6'1″ with a 77-inch reach.
Stephen Thompson (17-6-1) has gone 12-6-1 in his UFC career since 2012. He's one of the most recognizable figures in the sport and he continues to have a drive for the belt at age 40. He's faced just about everyone in the division and he's gone 3-2 in his last five fights. His most recent bout was an impressive win over Kevin Holland and after a number of cancellations against Michel Pereira, he'll step into this massive spot as a heavy underdog. Thompson stands 6'0″ with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 296 Odds: Shavkat Rakhmonov-Stephen Thompson Odds
Shavkat Rakhmonov: -650
Stephen Thompson: +470
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why Shavkat Rakhmonov Will Win
Just when it seems like Shavkat Rakhmonov has reached his peak as a fighter, he manages to get better with each passing fight and has passed each test with flying colors. The UFC has done a good job progressively building him up, but Rakhmonov has been able to capitalize with a finish in each one of his contests. Geoff Neal was his toughest opponent to date and was the first to truly push Rakhmonov to his limit. Still, Shavkat was able to get the standing guillotine finish and he shined in all areas during his first five-round fight. He seems about as complete of a martial artist as there is on the UFC roster and he'll be calling for a title shot with a win here.
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Shavkat Rakhmonov did a ton for his improvement by choosing to stand and trade with Geoff Neal in his last fight. He showed that he's much more than just a submission grappler and he proved his toughness by standing in there and taking Neal's shots. He'll have to be careful as Thompson is a much faster and twitchier striker, but Rakhmonov will still look to move forward nonetheless. If he can weather the initial storm and work his way into a clinch situation, he should be able to have his way with Thompson in the grappling and find an eventual submission win.
Why Stephen Thompson Will Win
Stephen Thompson believes that this fight is his golden ticket to an eventually title shot if he can place himself within the top-five. His resume speaks for itself and he's had arguably his best performance at this age against Kevin Holland in his last fight. Thompson looks extremely sharp and he's not reacting to punches in an obvious way, showing great signs of his prolonged durability and ability to avoid clean shots. He'll have the advantage in terms of movement over Rakhmonov as he's a master of controlling distance and boucning around the octagon. His constant motion could give Rakhmonov problems and he should look to cut him off with his arsenal of karate kicks.
While many fighters start to decline at this age, Stephen Thompson has done a great job of adapting his game and staying healthy when fighting. While he may have lost a step in his striking speed and explosiveness, he's much more calculated with how he chooses his strikes and has been more efficient with the way he deals damage. While Rakhmonov may be a tough fighter to put away on the feet, Thompson could see success if he's able to manage the distance and place his shots with accuracy. He's also got a tremendous gas tank and has lived in five-round environments, so don't expect Wonderboy to hold anything back in this one.
Final Shavkat Rakhmonov-Stephen Thompson Prediction & Pick
This fight is going to be extremely fun with both differing styles and both fighters should be extremely motivated knowing there's a possible title shot on the line. Shavkat Rakhmonov is the much better grappler here and it's being shown in the betting lines. If he can lock his hands and get Thompson on the ground, we should see a massive skill gap in the grappling as Shavkat chases the finish.
However, Stephen Thompson is fighting like an experienced veteran and Rakhmonov isn't he type of fighter he's never seen before. Expect Thompson to make this a much closer fight than it appears as his striking game is completely dialed-in at this stage of his career. Still, we're going to roll with Shavkat Rakhmonov to get this win by finish. He's shown an ability to finish some of the best and while Stephen Thompson still has a chance to contend for the belt, it's Rakhmonov's moment in this fight.
Final Shavkat Rakhmonov-Stephen Thompson Prediction & Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov (-650); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-166)
