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We're back and set to bring you another prediction and pick for the Early Prelims of UFC 296. Our next bout takes place in the Flyweight (125) Division and features a pair of contenders on the fringe of the rankings. Russia's No. 12 Tagir Ulanbekov will face off against No. 15 Cody Durden as both fighters come in off a win. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ulanbekov-Durden prediction and pick.
Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2) has gone 3-1 during his stint in the UFC since 2020. His only loss came as a unanimous decision to Tim Elliott in 2022, but he's looked very promising otherwise. His last fight was against another talented prospect in Nate Maness with Ulanbekov notching a standing guillotine submission in the first round. He'll hope to take that momentum with him against Durden. Ulanbekov stands 5'7″ with a 70-inch reach.
Cody Durden (16-4-1) has managed a 5-2-1 record in the UFC since 2020. Since his quick loss to Muhammad Mokaev in 2022, Durden made some changes to his camp and has since been on a four-fight winning streak that's seen one knockout and three unanimous decisions. He's at the peak of his career and athleticism and he'll be looking to capitalize against Ulanbekov. Cody Durden stands 5'7″ with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 296 Odds: Tagir Ulanbekov-Cody Durden Odds
Tagir Ulanbekov: -162
Cody Durden: +136
Over 2.5 rounds: -250
Under 2.5 rounds: +190
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Why Tagir Ulanbekov Will Win
Ulanbekov's loss to Tim Elliott seemed to expose a lot of holes in his game as far as the defensive grappling went. He also had a lot of trouble closing the distance and dealing with Elliott's awkward style of movement. However, Ulanbekov was able to respond very well as he got yet another submission win in his last fight. It marked his eighth win by submission as he's finished all of his fights by the method. He's a terrific pressure wrestler and fights with a traditional Dagestani-style chain wrestling method. He does a great job of controlling his opponents' wrists and could see some advantageous positions here if Durden tries to test him in the wrestling.
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To win this fight, Tagir Ulanbekov will have to survive the striking exchanges and shoot for takedowns throughout this fight. He's not the most polished striker and is landing as many per minute as he's receiving. Cody Durden is a very tough guy and it may not be the best idea to trade strikes with him and test his durability. Instead, Ulanbekov should look to tire Durden out with his wrestling and force him to make a mistake on the ground. With the smallest opening, the Russian can threaten submissions from a number of places knowing he's has yet to be submitted himself.
Why Cody Durden Will Win
After his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, Cody Durden decided to move his camp to his hometown of Atlanta and work on himself at American Top Team. It's paid dividends for him as he's won his last four fights and his last three by unanimous decision. Durden finds wins behind his toughness and willingness to push his hardest in the final round. He's a very talented wrestler and will seek takedowns relentlessly. He's also very good about stuffing takedowns and breaking the spirit of his opponent, but we've seen him wrestle himself into compromised spots and tire himself out before. Durden should pump the brakes and let this fight come to him, otherwise he could force himself into a tough spot against a lethal submission artist in Ulanbekov.
Cody Durden should have the striking advantage in this one and he'll be the much more durable fighter. We've seen him take a decent amount of damage in his last few fights, but he's responded well and he's constantly pressuring forward through the fire. As long as he's able to preserve his gas tank through the early rounds, Durden should get stronger as this fight goes on and he should be the one dictating pace. If he can be the one leading the dance and keep Ulanbekov along the cage, he should have enough finesse to win this fight.
Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Cody Durden Prediction & Pick
The matchmakers did a great job with this fight and it'll be interesting to see Ulanbekov face his toughest test since Tim Elliott. As far as wrestling goes, Ulanbekov has the style better-suited for MMA and he's active enough with his ground strikes to actually make it effective. Cody Durden is a fantastic wrestler in his own right, but his strengths are more defensive and transitional as opposed to offensive like Ulanbekov's. We're curious to see how much of this fight takes place on the feet.
While we're going to side with Ulanbekov for this one, expect this fight to be much closer than the betting line indicates. Cody Durden is very tough and will be able to break his way out of a number of submissions during this fight. However, the constant threat from Ulanbekov will be too much and he should get this win as long as he doesn't spend the entire fight defending off his back. Look towards Durden as a possible live underdog during this one.
Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Cody Durden Prediction & Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov (-162)
