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We're here with another prediction and pick for UFC Brazil: Almeida vs. Lewis as we head over to the Light Heavyweight (205 lbs) Division for this next exciting bout. Brazil's rising prospect Vitor Petrino will take on Lithuania's Modestas Bukauskas with a possible ranking on the line. Check out our UFC odds series for our Petrino-Bukauskas prediction and pick.
Vitor Petrino (9-0) is unbeaten in his two UFC fights after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. He had an impressive debut win over Anton Turkalj and was able to notch his first submission win with an arm triangle choke over Marcin Prachnio in his last fight. He'll hope to stay perfect as he takes on his toughest test to date. Petrino stands 6'2″ with a 77.5-inch reach.
Modestas Bukauskas (15-5) has gone 3-3 in his UFC bouts since 2020. After a nasty knee injury, Bukauskas has a short 2-0 stint in Cage Warriors prior to his UFC return. Since then, he's gotten back-to-back unanimous decision victories over Tyson Pedro and Zac Pauga. Bukauskas will be tasked with taking down another up-and-coming prospect as he looked to reestablish himself as a contender. Bukauskas stands 6'3″ with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Brazil Odds: Vitor Petrino-Modestas Bukauskas Odds
Vitor Petrino: -238
Modestas Bukauskas: +195
Over 2.5 rounds: +100
Under 2.5 rounds: -120
How to Watch Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET/ 3:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Vitor Petrino Will Win
Vitor Petrino came in off Contender Series as a dangerous prospect with power and submission capabilities. During his debut fight, Petrino was able to land the harder shots and create more damage, but his gas tank towards the end of the fight was a serious question about his game. Petrino grows visibily tired by the end of fights and his technique flies out of the window. He was in a back-and-forth fight against Marcin Prachnio where he was listed as the massive favorite. It wasn't until the third round that Petrino caught Prachnio in a bad spot and finished the arm triangle. Still, both guys were gassed at the end of the fight and Petrino ate a number of heavy leg kicks in the process.
To win this fight, Vitor Petrino will have to be much more active with his feet while conserving his cardio. He's a very muscular and big guy so he gets tired quickly when scrambling and backing up along the cage. He's not scared to stand in a phonebooth and trade, but it's clear that he can get caught standing in one spot as his movement skills are still coming along. To be successful against Bukauskas, Petrino will have to stick hard shots and move out of range quickly. He'll also fight knowing he's the better wrestler if this fight ends up hitting the ground.
Why Modestas Bukauskas Will Win
Since his devastating knee injury against Khalil Rountree, Bukauskas has won his following four fights in a row, with three coming by unanimous decision. Following his tune-up fights over in Cage Warriors, Bukauskas was given two upcoming prospects in his return to the UFC. Bukauskas was able to cruise to victories in both of those bouts and it's clear that he's returning to a similar form from before his knee injury. This seems like another great spot for him as he'll face a relatively inexperienced fighter in Petrino. Bukauskas has a much better gas tank than his opponent here and should look to exploit the difference immediately. Expect Bukauskas to start fast and frustrate Petrino with his varied attacks.
To wear his opponent out, Bukauskas should look to hang him on the cage and keep him guessing with takedown attempts. Stuffing takedowns takes a lot of energy, so Bukauskas can really put a dent in Petrino's cardio by keeping him guessing with level changes. He's also been very clean with his defense over the last two fights and hasn't been taking a ton of damage. If he comes into this fight with a solid camp and confidence, he should win as the underdog.
Final Vitor Petrino-Modestas Bukauskas Prediction & Pick
This fight is bound to be a banger as both guys have clear knockout ability on the feet. The main difference here will be the experience and veteran tactics of Modestas Bukauskas. He's been around the block enough times to realize the type of fighter Petrino is at this point of his career, so expect Bukauskas to put Petrino into some very uncomfortable spots throughout this fight.
I expect Modestas Bukauskas to really turn up the pace once this fight nears the third round. He's seen a decision in three of his last four fights and Petrino often struggles making it to the finish line of three-round fights. For our prediction, let's take the underdog in Bukauskas as he gets it done with a decision.
Final Vitor Petrino-Modestas Bukauskas Prediction & Pick: Modestas Bukauskas (+195)
