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UFC London: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura kicks off the prelims with a fight in the men's flyweight division between Jafel Filho and Daniel Barez. Filho comes into this fight off his debut loss meanwhile, Barez comes into his UFC debut with four straight wins. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Filho-Barez prediction and pick.
Jafel Filho (14-3) came into his UFC debut riding five straight wins all by the finish. That didn't last long as he was submitted by top flyweight prospect Muhammad Mokaev after almost ripping his leg apart in that third and final round. Filho is training partners with Jose Aldo at Nova Uniao and he hopes that experience can help him finally get his first win inside the octagon.
Daniel Barez (16-5) had a tough split decision loss in the Contender Series in 2021 to Carlos Hernandez. He has since rattled off his first straight first-round finishes in the last year en route to his debut fight here at the O2 Arena in London. He will be looking to get his first win inside the octagon as he takes on his toughest competitor since fighting Manel Kape in 2014 this weekend.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 77 Odds: Jafel Filho-Daniel Barez Odds
Jafel Filho: -112
Daniel Barez: -104
Over 2.5 Rounds: -106
Under 2.5 Rounds: -122
How to Watch Jafel Filho vs. Daniel Barez
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET/ 9:00 a.m. PT (Prelims)
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Why Jafel Filho Will Win
Team Nova Uniao product Jafel Filho is back in action to face off against UFC debutant and former Contender Series alumni Daniel Barez. Filho came up short in his last fight against one of the top prospects in the men's flyweight division Muhammad Mokaev. In that fight, Filho had a full extension on a kneebar that almost ripped Mokaev's leg in half but his toughness kept him in the fight to eventually tap out Filho via rear-naked choke.
Filho has a solid overall game with five knockouts and eight submissions on his record but he does his best work on the mat as he is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. He has helped train Jose Aldo in jiu-jitsu for as long as they've been training down in Brazil. This is a fight where a lot of grappling will be done as that is Barez's bread and butter as well and that is where Filho will have the advantage. As long as he can keep it competitive on the feet until it hits the mat he can then notch another submission win on his resume.
Why Daniel Barez Will Win
Daniel Barez came up short in his shot on the Contender Series after losing a split decision to Carlos Hernandez. He has since rattled off four straight wins all coming inside the first round. Barez has some great combinations on the feet, mixing things up low to high and high to low with kicks and punches. He is exceptionally fast and will be the quicker of the two when this fight is fought at range.
Barez also likes to mix in takedowns, with top control, and his slick submission game where he has amassed six submission wins on his resume. If he can mix things up and keep Filho honest and just stay at range and out of the power shots of his opposition he can score the upset. He will need to make sure if he is attempting takedowns to ensure he stays safe and does not get swept or possibly get caught in a leglock as Muhammad Mokaev did.
Final Jafel Filho-Daniel Barez Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a great scrap in the men's flyweight division. Filho while he is a good striker in his own right will be wanting to take this fight to the mat where he has the advantage in the grappling. Meanwhile, Barez would need to be smart enough and not think he is the better grappler of the two and keep this fight on the feet where he does have a speed advantage. This boils down to who can implement their game plan and whose fight IQ is on point in this matchup. Seeing that the smaller Carlos Hernandez has been able to takedown Barez and even reverse his positions on the mat leads me to believe that Filho will be able to take this fight to the mat and either sink in the submission or rack up enough top control to win this fight on the judge's scorecards.
Final Jafel Filho-Daniel Barez Prediction & Pick: Jafel Filho (-112), Under 2.5 Rounds (-122)
