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UFC Vegas 49 comes together after an injury forced a reshuffling of the main event. Bobby Green replaces Beniel Dariush on 10-days notice to take on Russia’s Islam Makhachev. The winner is expected to get a lightweight title shot against the winner of Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje. Green has a reputation for being a slick striker with excellent hand speed and the ability to talk during the whole fight. Makhachev is known for being the next best thing to Khabib Nurmagomedov with a crushing wrestling game and an ever-evolving striking game.
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Islam Makhachev is starting to come into his own in the UFC and sports big wins over Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises, and Gleison Tibau. The Russian has been racking up the wins and only sports one surprising, knockout loss. He really does appear to be the closest thing to Khabib Nurmagomedov we can get since the former champion retired. His striking has been steadily improving and he has no problem getting his opponents to the ground and suffocating them with his pressure. He’ll be looking to do the same with Green.
Bobby Green looks to be in an excellent place in his UFC career. The fight against Rafael Fiziev really broke him out of his shell and put him on the radar for many of the newer fans. Green has been in the UFC since 2013 and has always been a tough fight for anyone. Today, he’s seen as a striker but he comes from a wrestling background. He has an excellent ground game and has shown flashes of brilliance against high-level grapplers. Green is not normally a finisher but he did knock out Al Iaquinta back at UFC 268. He has been fighting frequently since last year and appears to be close to a Jorge Masvidal-like path.
Here are the UFC Vegas 49 odds, featuring our Makhachev-Green prediction, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Odds: Makhachev-Green Odds
Islam Makhachev (-900)
Bobby Green (+610)
Decision No Bet
Islam Makhachev (-1350)
Bobby Green (+630)
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How Islam Makhachev wins the fight at UFC Vegas 49
Islam Makhachev has a very clear game plan for his fights and it’s one that’s been very effective. His wrestling and pressure have given everyone fits so far. His wrestling will be on full display in this fight as striking with Bobby Green is not an option if he wants to win. Green’s speed and footwork would be tricky for Makhachev to navigate. The game plan for a victory is by overpowering Green and doing work in the clinch and from top position on the ground. Green has not been submitted since 2009 so the strategy in this one is to overwhelm for five rounds and control the fight, much like Khabib Nurmagomedov used to. The striking will be important for creating entries but staying on the feet too long will lead to losing rounds. Makachev is going to have to work in order to secure a decision win.
How Bobby Green wins the fight at UFC Vegas 49
Bobby Green is very underrated heading into this fight. The career lightweight has parts of his game that are very interesting for a matchup like this and thinking he’s simply a striker is a wrong analysis. Green has never been ground out by a wrestle over the course of multiple rounds and he doesn’t stay stuck on the bottom. He does hold a big advantage on the feet with his speed and footwork sure to give Islam Makhachev problems. Avoiding wrestling is important but being overly cautious has led to many people losing by getting in their own heads. Green will need to control the fight on the feet and work on not getting caught on the bottom and ground out. His most likely path to victory is by a decision by mixing up the striking and wrestling.
Final Makhachev-Green Prediction & Pick
This fight is a lot closer than people are giving it credit for. Bobby Green has the ability to win but there are plenty of question marks with him taking the fight on short notice. The fight will be determined in the first few rounds. Bobby Green has to prove his stand-up game is better than Islam Makhachev in order to gain respect. Expect Makhachev to look for the takedown early and control the cage. His pressure should be enough to stifle Green's gameplan unless he's unable to keep him on the ground. Green is very hard to finish and hasn't been submitted since 2009. Makhachev takes a hard-earned decision to earn the next title shot.
Final Makhachev-Green Prediction & Pick: Islam Makhachev wins by decision.
