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It's finally time for the UFC Vegas 78 Main Event as we bring you a prediction and pick for Saturday's five-round headlining bout in the Welterweight (170 lb) Division. Fellow Brazilians will meet in this ranked matchup as No. 10 Vicente Luque takes on No. 9 Rafael dos Anjos. This is bound to be a highly-skilled chess match from the start! Check out our UFC odds series for our Luque-dos Anjos prediction and pick.
Vicente Luque (21-9-1) has gone an impressive 14-5 since joining the UFC. Luque went on a four-fight win streak beginning in 2020 that saw him notch vicious stoppages over Niko Price, Randy Brown, Tyron Woodley, and Michael Chiesa. When faced with a top contender in Belal Muhammad, Luque couldn't get the job done. He was TKO'd badly in his last fight with Geoff Neal and will be returning a year later on Saturday to avenge his loss. Luque stands 5'11” with a 75.5 -inch reach.
Rafael dos Anjos (32-14) has gone 21-12 during his illustrious UFC career. He was the Lightweight Division's first-ever Brazilian Champion and continues to defy Father Time with each fight. He's seen success as of late and has gone 3-1 in his fights since 2020. He comes in after a signature rear-naked choke finish against Bryan Barberena and will hope to make one more run at the title. Dos Anjos stands 5'8″ with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 78 Odds: Vicente Luque-Rafael dos Anjos Odds
Vicente Luque: -102
Rafael dos Anjos: -120
Over (4.5) rounds: +108
Under (4.5) rounds: -136
How to Watch Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
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Why Vicente Luque Will Win
Vicente Luque is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC and when he's on his game, he's a dangerous finisher that no one wants to face. His striking is as crisp as it gets and his jiu-jitsu is on another level than most of his opponents. He's come back down to Earth in his last two fights, however, as he was outworked by Belal Muhammad and completely battered by Geoff Neal. Luque had to take a year off due to brain bleeding after his last fight, so it'll be interesting to see if he's the same fighter he once was when he steps in on Saturday.
To win this fight, Luque will have to stay defensive and forget his last two performances. He's looked timid and a shell of the version he used to be, so it'll take some digging for Luque to return to his previous form. If he can do so, he should have all the advantages against an aged fighter like RDA. Luque should be patient with his striking knowing he's the better boxer here. Things can always get dicey when dealing with a submission legend like RDA, so look for Luque to control this fight on the feet and only seek submissions if something's open.
Why Rafael dos Anjos Will Win
Rafael dos Anjos has looked very patient in his last few fights and has done a great job of adapting his game as he grows older. Once a champion, RDA knows what it takes to get back to the top of the division. He's one of the best submission artists in the game and realized his strength during his last fight. Instead of standing and striking with a dangerous Barberena, dos Anjos took the fight to the ground and got on the back where he's most comfortable. He may employ a similar strategy here against Luque as he knows he's outmatched on the feet.
To win this fight, dos Anjos should look to bring the heat to Luque early and pressure him with his movement. Fighters can be gun-shy following a knockout loss, so dos Anjos would benefit from blitzing Luque and trying to overwhelm him early. We've seen Luque start slow in the past, so the early stages of this fight could be the best window for RDA to come out with a shocking win. It'll be interesting to see how his cardio holds up if this fight hits the later rounds.
Final Vicente Luque-Rafael dos Anjos Prediction & Pick
This is an extremely close fight between two very similar fighters. Both guys are very aggressive, yet technical on the feet. Vicente Luque possesses the striking advantage, but he'll have to translate it into meaningful output against dos Anjos. This will be an absolute chess match on the ground as both guys are BJJ savants. Dos Anjos has the slight advantage on the ground and will likely look to get the fight down at some point. It's hard to see Luque returning to his past form after the last two knockouts. They may have a serious effect on his chin and RDA may look to take advantage. For the prediction, we'll side with dos Anjos ever so slightly, but this may be a fight to stay away from.
Final Vicente Luque-Rafael dos Anjos Prediction & Pick: Rafael dos Anjos (-120)
