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It's finally time for coverage of our headlining bout from UFC Vegas 82 as we bring you our prediction and pick for the Main Event of the evening. Two ranked beasts will face off in the Middleweight (185) Division as No. 10 Brendan Allen meets No. 13 Paul Craig for a competitive bout with rankings on the line. Check out our UFC odds series for our Allen-Craig prediction and pick.
Brendan Allen (22-5) has gone an impressive 10-2 in his UFC fights since 2019. He's on a five-fight winning streak and has made noise as one of the fastest rising middleweights in his division. His last three consecutive wins have come by way of rear naked choke and he'll look to defend his ranking against one of the best submission artists in the sport. Allen stands 6'2″ with a 75-inch reach.
Paul Craig (17-6-1) has gone 9-6-1 since his UFC debut in 2016 and he's built a name for himself as one of the most dangerous submission artists in the entire Middleweight Division. His last two fights against strikers didn't quite go as planned for him, but he was able to ground-and-pound Andre Muniz to victory in his last fight. Craig stands 6'3″ with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 82 Odds: Brendan Allen-Paul Craig Odds
Brendan Allen: -425
Paul Craig: +330
Over 1.5 rounds: -125
Under 1.5 rounds: -105
How to Watch Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET/ 2:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Brendan Allen Will Win
Brendan Allen is on one of the hotter streaks in all of MMA right now and he hasn't slowed down one bit during his rise through the rankings. He's now posted 13 of his total wins by submission and has four of his last five wins by way of rear naked choke. Allen is willing to put his grappling up against anyone in the division and he might be getting the best submission artist we've seen in some time. Brendan Allen will have the strong boxing advantage in this fight and should look to keep this fight standing. We've seen strikers have success with dropping Paul Craig and forcing him to stand from his guard, so expect Allen to fully play into his advantage on the feet.
It'll be interesting to see whether Brendan Allen will engage Paul Craig on the ground in this one. As Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker outstruck Paul Craig, Allen could easily keep this fight standing and piece Craig up with his combinations. He's the more varied striker with faster hands, so look for Allen to fully trade in the pocket with his opponent. On the ground, Allen could surprise some people with how defensively sound his jiu-jitsu is. Expect him to look better in most areas of this fight as the favorite.
Why Paul Craig Will Win
Paul Craig has 13 of his wins by way of submission and is dangerous from all areas on the ground. He's one of the toughest fighters on the roster and will keeping pressing forward even when he's clearly down in a fight. We've seen him get put in terrible positions by some of the division's best, only to escape with a sneaky submission win. Paul Craig will constantly be a submission threat throughout this fight and while Brendan Allen may be leading the dance, Craig will always have a submission attempt to work with in his back pocket. His ground game didn't do much against better strikers like Oezdemir and Walker, so Craig will have to switch up his game plan ahead of this one.
Paul Craig can win this fight if he shows more resolve on the feet and doesn't get caught with his hands down. He'll be the slightly bigger guy and is a physically imposing fighter when in the cage. Craig should look to pressure Allen against the fence and threaten with the looming takedown. Pulling guard won't be much of an option against a seasoned black belt like Brendan Allen, so Craig will have to work for his takedowns if he wants them to be effective.
Final Brendan Allen-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick
This will be a great matchup between two tough fighters and if they choose to engage on the ground, fans will be in for a grappling masterclass from both guys. Brendan Allen will have the striking advantage here and is much faster with his hands and foot movement. If he sees success early, we could see him employ is similar game plan to that of Johnny Walker.
Still, Paul Craig will be a huge submission threat in this one and is typically a hard guy to put away. I expect this fight to be close through the beginning, but Brendan Allen will ultimately land the bigger shots and sit Paul Craig down. For our prediction, let's go with Allen to get his sixth-straight win as this fight goes over the total.
Final Brendan Allen-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick: Brendan Allen (-425); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-125)
