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We're back with a prediction and pick as we draw closer to our UFC Vegas 82 headlining bout. First, we take a look at the Co-Main Event between rising prospects in the Welterweight (170) Division. Ecuador's own Michael Morales will take on Australia's Jake Matthews. This should be a high-level fight before the Main Event! Check out our UFC odds series for our Morales-Matthews prediction and pick.
Michael Morales (15-0) comes in perfect with three wins under the UFC thus far in his career. He burst onto the Contender Series scene with a unanimous decision win and has since notched two knockout wins over valid UFC competition. The sky is the limit for Morales and he'll have the toughest test of his career in facing Jake Matthews. Morales stands 6'0″ with a 79-inch reach.
Jake Matthews (19-6) has gone 14-6 during his UFC career dating back to 2016. He's been around the game for quite some time, but he's returned from recent injuries as a new-and-improved fighter. Matthews has gone 3-2 in his last five fights and won his most recent bout over Darrius Flowers via submission. He'll be tasked with silencing the hype as a sizable underdog in this one. Matthews stands 5'11” with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 82 Odds: Michael Morales-Jake Matthews Odds
Michael Morales: -305
Jake Matthews: +245
Over 1.5 rounds: -210
Under 1.5 rounds: +160
How to Watch Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET/ 2:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Michael Morales Will Win
Michael Morales comes in as a very exciting prospect and fans will be very happy to see him in action once again. He has devastating power for his frame and generates great leverage from his punches. He throws short shots up the middle and follows them up with aggressive hooks to the head and body. His foot movement is still coming along and he tends to stand straight up when throwing his strikes, so Morales will have to stay diligent and move out of the pocket when Matthews closes the distance. If he can keep this at striking range on the feet, Morales should pick up the victory.
We haven't seen Morales get tested on the ground too much and he boasts a 91% takedown defense through his first three fights. Matthews is the most competent wrestler Morales has had to face, so expect him to have to work his takedown defense once again as he tries to keep this on the feet. Matthews also comes with a high pace and cardio, so expect Morales to have to push a frantic pace in this fight if he wants to finish his opponent.
Why Jake Matthews Will Win
Jake Matthews is coming into this fight off a big submission win and he's certainly excited about possibly stealing Morales' momentum from underneath him. Matthews has heavy hands and will certainly be able to finish this fight with the knockout, but he'll have to close the distance and overcome the reach advantage for Morales. Look for Matthews to work his way inside and negate any offense from Morales by tying him up against the fence. The more Matthews can make Morales feel uncomfortable in this fight, the better chance he stands to win.
The key to winning this fight for Matthews will be to throw Morales off his game. Morales is at his best when he's sitting at striking range and popping his opponent with his straight right. Matthews should look to constantly circle away from him and wear on his cardio as the fight goes on. If his opponent is tired by the third round, Matthews will have a great opportunity to work his wrestling and put Morales into a bad position on the ground. He's been the underdog many times before, so counting him out because of the betting odds would be a grave mistake.
Final Michael Morales-Jake Matthews Prediction & Pick
This fight should be a great matchup stylistically and it'll be interesting to see whether the veteran Matthews can teach the newcomer Morales a thing or two in the cage. We'll give the stern striking advantage to Morales because of his fast hands and ability to move out of the way of punches. If Matthews decides to stand for all three rounds, he could be in for a long night.
However, I expect Matthews to put up a good fight as this bout will be closer than the betting odds indicate. I expect Matthews to relentlessly seek the takedown, but ultimately tire himself out in doing so. For our prediction, let's go with Michael Morales to get this win as he lands the more devastating blows on the feet.
Final Michael Morales-Jake Matthews Prediction & Pick: Michael Morales (-305); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-210)
