The UFC 324 Prelims continue to roll from Las Vegas as we're set for the Featured Prelim, taking place in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Ranked contenders No. 2 Umar Nurmagomedov and No. 6 Deiveson Figueiredo will go to war in hopes of a potential title shot. Check our UFC odds series for the Nurmagomedov-Figueiredo prediction and pick.
Umar Nurmagomedov (19-1) has gone 7-1 inside the UFC since 2021 en route to becoming a top bantamweight contender. Having lost his title shot against then-champ Merab Dvalishvili, he bounced back with a win over Mario Bautista and comes into this fight the card's biggest betting favorite. Nurmagomedov stands 5-foot-8 with a 69-inch reach.
Deiveson Figueiredo (25-5-1) is 14-5-1 throughout his UFC career since 2017. The former champion suffered back-to-back losses against Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen, but he's intent on making one last push for UFC gold as he tries to take down the top contender. Figueiredo stands 5-foot-5 with a 68-inch reach.
UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 324 Odds: Umar Nurmagomedov-Deiveson Figueiredo Odds
Umar Nurmagomedov: -1450
Deiveson Figueiredo: +850
Over 2.5 rounds: -175
Under 2.5 rounds: +135
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Why Umar Nurmagomedov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Mario Bautista – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
It's clear that Umar Nurmagomedov is still behind the pace and wrestling of former champ Merab Dvalishvili, but with Petr Yan now holding the belt and becoming the first to figure Dvalishvili out, Nurmagomedov may have an opening to exact another title opportunity. Figueiredo is past his prime and although he should offer an exciting challenge, there's a reason Nurmagomedov comes in the -1450 betting favorite. Still, he's had trouble finishing top opponents and Figueiredo hanging in there could make this an interesting fight.
Nevertheless, Nurmagomedov will have the obvious wrestling advantage here despite all the jiu jitsu experience Figueiredo has accumulated over the years. The pressure style of wrestling taught by Khabib Nurmagomedov is the perfect counter to most Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioners, something Khabib and Islam Makhachev have proven repeatedly over the years. Umar should be able to control this fight in smothering fashion if he remains disciplined and diligent with his takedowns.
Figueiredo still only has one loss by submission in over 30 MMA fights, so he certainly won't be easy to catch at any point. Given they'll only fight for three rounds, Nurmagomedov will have to focus on keeping the pace high and chasing takedowns relentlessly. Figueiredo has been known to allow takedowns at just 57% defense, so expect another high-volume wrestling performance out of the Dagestani.
Why Deiveson Figueiredo Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Montel Jackson – S DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
In rebounding from his loss to Cory Sandhagen, Deiveson Figueiredo looked slightly flat his last time out against Montel Jackson. Jackson, the rising prospect, actually led the total strikes 30-23 in three rounds that lacked much action. Figueiredo managed two takedowns and control time, however, likely giving him the split edge on the scorecards. Still, the showing was lackluster and he certainly won't be able to come out the same in this one.
While Montel Jackson was a dangerous striking opponent, Figueiredo certainly looked dominant and strong in the grappling. He shouldn't get too comfortable on the ground, however, as he simply won't be able to keep up with Nurmagomedov. Instead, this fight should be about Figueiredo getting to his feet and keeping this a scrappy kickboxing fight. He's been successful in those scenarios in the past and could have the slight striking advantage over his opponent.
Conserving energy will also be a focal point for Figueiredo as Nurmagomedov is likely to push a high pace given the three-round environment. Figueiredo should look to sprawl while staying away from the fence not to allow his opponent to pin him there. The more unorthodox he can be, the more chances he'll have for success.
Final Umar Nurmagomedov-Deiveson Figueiredo Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun fight given the exciting style of Deiveson Figueiredo, but I don't really see a situation where he can come away with an upset here. Umar Nurmagomedov is too skilled and technical with his wrestling while his increased striking discipline should keep him out of trouble on that front. Control will be the main focus for Nurmagomedov as he'll look to take the fight where he's most comfortable.
Still, Figueiredo should offer some resistance throughout, so we'll side with the fight to go the distance. While there's not much value in the moneyline, taking Nurmagomedov to win by decision should be a safe replacement.
Final Umar Nurmagomedov-Deiveson Figueiredo Prediction & Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov (-1450); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-175)
