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Wagner looks to pull off the major upset as they face North Carolina. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Wagner-North Carolina prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Wanger returns to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2003. That year, they were the 15 seed and lost in the first round. That is their only appearance in the field in program history. Wagner was 16-15 this year but went on a run in the NEC tournament. They would be the underdog in three straight games, but go on to win the tournament to grab these first four games as a 16-seed. Last time out, they won their First Four game. It was a tight game with Howard that came down to the last shot. Howard would miss the game-tying three-point attempt, and Wanger would hold on 71-68.
Meanwhile, North Carolina won the regular season title in the ACC and would make it to the conference finals after a 27-7 season. There, they would have to face North Carolina State. It would be a poor shooting game for North Carolina as they would fall 84-76. Still, with two wins over Duke in the regular season, plus wins over Oklahoma, Clemson, and Tennessee, North Carolina would earn a one-seed in the tournament, and get to face Wagner in this game.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Wagner-North Carolina Odds
Wagner: +24.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +3500
North Carolina: -24.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -10000
Over: 133.5 (-115)
Under: 133.5 (-105)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 2:45 PM ET/ 11:45 AM PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Wagner Will Cover The Spread/Win
Wagner comes in ranked 289th in KenPoms adjusted efficiency rankings, sitting 332nd in offensive efficiency, while also sitting 172nd in defensive efficiency. Wagner is 357th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 349th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Melvin Council Jr. leads the way in points per game. He comes in with 14.8 points per game this year but is shooting just 39.0 percent from the girls. Tahron Allen has been the most effective shooter among the best scoring options. He has 10.7 points per game while shooting just 40.7 percent from the field.
Wagner is 156th in rebounds per game this year while sitting 92nd in the nation in defensive rebounding rate. Council leads the way here as well. He comes in with 5.7 rebounds per game this year. Further, Keyonate Lewis and Tahron Allen both come in with over five rebounds per game, while Tyje Kelton comes in with 4.1 rebounds per game this year.
Wagner is sixth in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 65th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Melvin Council is important here as well. He comes in with 1.4 steals per game, while Javier Ezquerra also adds 1.3 steals per game.
Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread/Win
North Carolina is ninth according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are sitting 24th on the offensive side of things while sitting sixth on the defensive side of things. They have done all of this while facing the 20th hardest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. North Carolina is 20th in the nation in points per game. They are led by RJ Davis. While Davis shoots just 43.1 percent from the field, he is a solid three-point shooter, hitting 40.6 percent of his threes. That has led to him scoring 21.4 points per game this year to lead the team. He also helps the offense with his 3.5 assists this year.
Armando Bacot is also scoring well. He comes into the game with 14.1 points per game, and he is shooting 54.7 percent from the field this year. Joining him in scoring well is Harrison Ingram. He comes in with 12.1 points per game this year. Further, North Carolina has Cormac Ryan who comes in with 11.2 points per game.
The rebounding game is great for North Carolina. They are fifth in the nation in rebounds per game this year, while sitting 56th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, and second in defensive rebounding rate. Bacot and Ingram lead the way here too. Bacot comes in with 10.2 rebounds per game this year, while Ingram comes in with 9.0 rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, both of them have over two offensive rebounds per game this year.
On defense, North Carolina ranks 105th in the nation in points against this year but sits 5th in opponent effective field goal percentage this year. Bacot is a disruptive force here too, coming in with 1.5 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Harrison Ingram comes in with 1.4 steals per game this year. Further, RJ Davis has 1.2 steals per game this year.
Final Wagner-North Carolina Prediction & Pick
North Carolina is one of the best teams in the nation, while Wagner barely made the tournament. Wagner has had a wonderful run, but they do not have the players to keep up in this one. Wagner has a solid defense, but it will not be able to contend with North Carolina. Further, the North Carolina rebounding game will be difficult for Wagner to contend with. Still, 24.5 points is a lot to ask a team to cover. That makes the best play in this game is on the total. Take the over in this one.
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Final Wagner-North Carolina Prediction & Pick: Over 133.5 (-115)
